FX weekly — XAU/USD and 14 currency pair levels and targets

EUR/USD's big line break at 1.0626 determines the 400 pip  range from the bottom at 1.0200 to 1.0626. Above 1.0626 trades the 500 pip range from 1.0626 to 1.1130, 1.1137 and 1.1198, 1.1217, 1.1242. The 400 and 500 pip ranges is the new and permanent EUR/USD and must be analyzed for trade purposes as 150, 300 and 400 - 500 ranges. Central bank's new interest rate arrangements significantly limited EUR/USD ranges in perpetuity.

The break at 1.0626 targets 1.0585, 1.0543, 1.0459 and 1.0292. EUR/USD trades and opens the week oversold from the higher averages at 1.1100's to 1.1200's. Vital breaks higher targets 1.0734, 1.0765, 1.0850, 1.0899 and 1.0963.

EUR/USD vs. XAU/USD

EUR/USD trades oversold as the 1.0626 line drives EUR/USD. XAU/USD trades massive overbought and is driven by the big line at 2001.51. Correlations run positive at +23%, +83% then the correlations severely break down to +8%, 2% and -9%, -18% and -32%. A higher EUR/USD and lower XAU/USD will break the strong and short term correlation at +23% and +83%.

XAU/USD vs M1 and M2

XAU/USD Correlates negative to the M1 and M2 Money supplies across all monthly averages from 1 month to 10 years. Yet when XAU/USD Bottomed at 1200's in 2019, the M1 money supply traded 4285.7 and traveled to 2023 highs at 20801.9.

M1 just exists as M1 nor M2 trades overbought or oversold. Current M1 trades 17911.8 and a massive jump from 3698.1 just 6 years ago and +1184.47 in each of 6 years.

M1 and M2's slow move and range movements reveals by addition and subtraction to XAU/USD M1,  will trade 1500's to 20000's.

XAU/USD Correlates negatie to Currency in Circulation.

Despite 500 points to Fed Fund raises, the money supply grew slowly. In 2014, the M1 money supply traded 2773.4 and grew every year to 20800.0 tops.

M1 nor M2 represent an indicator to trade financial instruments such as EUR/USD and XAU/USD and the concept of QT, loose or tight money appears as yet another Market myth. The only manner where Money supplies beomes vald as a trade indicator is to test money Vs Futures trade volume. As was accomplished with EUR/USD years ago.

M1 Averages 1 to 5 Years: 18294.51, 19257.16, 24424.22, 21897.68, 18295.06. Then 6 to 9 Years: 15862.58, 14105.62, 12754.32, 11617.67

EUR/USD joins XAU/USD as negative correlations to M1 and M2 across all averages from 1 to 10 years.

FX weekly

XAU/USD targets 2092 and 2038 and trades massive overbought. XAU/USD trades roughly 100 point ranges far into the future. Averages travel every 100 points from 2001.51, 1901.79, 1874.94, 1861.56 and 1689 at the 5 year average.

The bull market to XAU/USD is not not seen. If XAU/USD breaks 2001.51 then bull market concepts become irrelevant.

EUR/USD has easily abilty to break 1.0734 and 1.0764. This is done by 1.0644, 1.0674, 1.0704, 1.0734 and 1.0749. EUR/USD must trade to minimum 1.0734.

GBP/USD must trade to minimum 1.2481 and 1.2585. Target for the week at 1.2522 accomplishes easily on a break at 1.2488.

USD/JPY trades overbought and targets the break at 153.47 then 152.90.

JPY cross pairs trade oversold as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY while overbought applies to CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY. GBP/JP sits on vtal 189.84. If this line breaks then all JPY cross pairs will travel lower.

AUD/USD targets 0.6495 and NZD/USD 0.5981.

NZD/USD trades deeply oversold and oversold applies to NZD/JPY, NZD/CHF, NZD/CAD. NZD/USD and NZD/CHF  are the bottom exchange rate numbers in regards to 60 currency pairs. Oversold or overbought NZD/USD has easily ability to force 60 currency pairs higher or lower.

Oversold NZD for example allows EUR/USD and GBP/USD to trade higher.

GBP/NZD trades fairly neutral to overbought EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD at 2.0985 and EUR/NZD 1.8083 trades a 2900 pip range. The discrepancy is 300 pips as the normal range trades 2600 pips. EUR/NZD short would allow 2600 to trade again.

GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD trade overbought. USD/CHF trades overbought to oversold CHF cross pairs. The exception is overbought CAD/CHF.

CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF Vs USD/CAD is the classic triangulation trade. CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF correlates opposite to USD/CAD. Long to USD/CAD is a short to CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF.