Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Currency markets this week trade by ranges and the same exact range points as last week. Long and short entries from last week sit at the same levels this week. Holding progress to wider trade ranges is the same EUR/USD and DXY story to average compression.
DXY traded + 100 pip weeks in 3 of the past 9 weeks. Since January and 20 weeks, DXY traded +100 pip weeks in 9 of the 20 weeks and just under 50%. DXY traded 103.00 to 106.00 for the past 9 weeks and progressed higher by 30 pips per week at 6 pips per day for 45 trade days.
EUR/USD 5 year average at 1.1121 = DXY 99.00. EUR/USD 1.1032 = DXY 101.14, EUR/USD 1.0886 and 1.0905 = DXY 103.66.
Last week, markets traded in the 1st week of the 6 week economic cycle highlighted by Imports and Exports as the last release to every 6 week cycle. Inflation and GDP begin the new cycle. GDP at 1.6 trades low, oversold and heading higher. GDP must trade at or above the Inflation rate to consider economic recovery. Higher GDP represents a slight correction in a longer downtrend.
The week
EUR/USD trades 1.0812 to 1.0870 Vs 1.0886 and 1.0905. EUR/USD overbought begins at 1.0870 and short point for the week.
The EUR Universe trades overbought EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD Vs oversold EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP.
GBP/USD trades 1.2619, 1.2629 Vs 1.2779 and 1.2803 at the 5 year average. GBP/USD begins the week overbought and trades to close to the 5 year average.
GBP/USD's universe trades as overbought GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD Vs Oversold GBP/NZD.
EUR/AUD massive supports are located at 1.6153 and 1.6005. Continued Shorts must hold below 1.6395. Lower for GBP/AUD must break 1.9132. Divergence exists between EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD as each trade on oppsite sides of many vital average lines.
EUR/NZD sits on vital supports at 1.7479 and 1.7244. Shorts must remain below 1.7823. GBP/NZD support at 2.0306. GBP/NZD longs and shorts are decided by 2.0801.
NZD/USD trades 0.6067 to 0.6225. NZD/USD trades on the low side to 0.6067 on a long for the week strategy.
AUD/USD trades 0.6595 to 0.6733.
USD/CAD supports: 1.3626 and 1.3385. USD/CAD targets 1.3594 then 1.3455.
USD/JPY for the week targets 155.43 and GBP/JPY 197.91.
Overbought applies across the board to USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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EUR/USD clings to modest recovery gains above 1.0700
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GBP/USD remains pressured below 1.2700 amid cautious mood
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2700 in the second half of the day on Monday. The hawkish Fed expectations and a softer risk tone keep the US Dollar afloat, exerting downward pressure on the pair. Fedspeak remains next in focus.
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Five fundamentals for the week: French opinion polls, US Retail Sales and Bank of England eyed Premium
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