FX update – USD consolidates at lows

Stuart Cowell HFM

EUR/USD, H4

The main currencies have settled in narrow ranges, with the Dollar consolidating above yesterday’s lows after a two-day decline. The USDIndex (DXY) has steadied in the lower 93.0s, above yesterday’s one-week low at 92.93. EURUSD has concurrently reached a stasis in the lower 1.1800s, below Thursday’s one-week peak at 1.1865. The pair has been in a strong uptrend since early May, producing last week’s 27-month high at 1.1917, though upside momentum has flagged over the last two weeks. The advent of the 750 bln Euro recovery fund and the fact that Europe has come through the pandemic ahead of the US have been underpinning EURUSD, along with the perception that the Fed is strategically being less attentive to inflation risks, which pushed real Treasury yields deep into negative territory. This dynamic looks to be shifting in certain aspects, which may curtail EURUSD’s uptrend. New coronavirus cases are dropping in sun states as community immunity builds up, having already done so in other parts of the US, while high frequency data and the July employment report are evidencing rebounding economic activity.

Elsewhere today, USDJPY has been plying a narrow range below yesterday’s three-week high at 107.06. Cable has settled near 1.3050, holding well within the broadly sideways range that’s been seen over the last week. Ditto for AUD-USD, which has been making time near the 0.7150 mark.

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

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