Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group
Contrary to the way I came into 2019, Dollar Bulls Maintain The Edge. My initial outlook was that the Dollar Index (DXY) would begin to decline and trade towards 92.50-91.50. That outlook is being put to the test. Last week's successful 'hold' of the 61.8% retracement at 95.29 suggests prices are to continue higher.
-
For the above scenario, the minimum upside attraction seen towards 97.84-98.19 - we peg that at a 53% chance within one week.
-
The move lower in gold is also keeping a bid on DXY and should put some downside pressure on AUD/USD.
As you can tell, I am not trying to make a long-range forecast here...simply looking ahead several days/weeks. That is how the market is trading at present in my opinion.
Closed FX Trades:
-
Short EUR/NOK +540 pips
-
Short CAD/JPY +23 pips
Open FX Trades
-
USD/CHF
-
NZD/USD
FX Trades On Our Radar:
-
USD/MXN
-
USD/CNH
January 6th Market Re-Cap
Additional Reading/Listening:
- Emerging Markets (EEM) continue to get a lot press. Nearly everyone is calling for a turn higher. Perhaps. Valuations are attractive, and turnover is at a record high. Previous high levels of turnover have been bullish. However, one needs to weigh that against a stronger US dollar.
-636837303707141660.png)
- I am seeing far too many overly pessimistic data points recently. And the vast majority of the ones I am seeing are contrarian. The one below is a perfect example. Don't get too bearish in here....it might hurt! Just as a refresher, March 2009 was the start of a pretty big move higher in the S&P's.
-636837304169195341.png)
- It might be time to short copper (CPER)
-636837304562965581.png)
To learn more about Aspen Trading Group and to download "The List of the best trading resources David Floyd recommends", click here
Aspen Trading Group´s FX Commentary, including any content or information contained within it or Aspen Trading Group´s web site, any site-related service, is provided “as is”, with all faults, with no representations or warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and noninfringement. You assume total responsibility and risk for your use of Aspen Trading Group´s commentary/website, site-related services, and hyperlinked websites.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700
EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.
GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session
GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.
Gold climbs above $2,340 following earlier drop
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.