Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish spending data up to and including 13 July has spending stabilising at a normal level and continued signs of improvement in, notably, services spending. Note that we do not take into account the decline in cash spending compared with last year, which implies that private consumption (excluding cars) is still trailing 2019 by around 4%.
The most notable improvements over the past week have been for restaurants, where spending is now at 2019's level. The same goes for spending at tourist attractions and amusement parks. Likewise, hotel spending is now only 10% below the level in 2019. However, this continues to underestimate the challenges these industries are facing because of the large decline in the number of tourists, notably in Copenhagen, where tourists normally make up 60% of stays in hotels, compared with 50% nationwide.
Spending at gas stations rose to 5% above the 2019 level, despite prices being more than 10% below what they were in 2019. With spending on plane tickets at half of 2019's level, this indicates that Danes are driving on holiday, rather than flying.
Spending with travel agencies has improved in July, from being 80% below normal to 70% below normal. The weather deteriorating and borders opening are likely to be contributing factors but we still do not expect to see a significant improvement this summer.
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