From mines to microchips: How emerging countries can capitalise on the demand for AI

With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), emerging countries with strategic resources—such as critical metals and semiconductor production capacities—are becoming key players. Countries that are well positioned within AI supply chains benefit from both an economic growth engine and an asset to leverage in their international relations. Industrialised countries in Asia, which account for over 85% of the global export of electronic chips, are best placed to capitalise on the increasing demand for AI. However, this advantage comes with greater exposure to the risk of a technology market correction. Countries that extract minerals that are vital to AI also have an advantage; forming partnerships that help attract foreign investment will be the key to positioning themselves more centrally in AI supply chains.

Finally, whether they are producers of minerals or chips, these countries are all exposed to the risks associated with the high concentration of major AI players in a context of heightened geopolitical tensions.

Contrary to expectations, average growth in emerging economies did not slow down in 2025 compared to 2024, despite the scale of protectionist measures and geopolitical tensions. According to our latest estimates, it stood at 4.3%, the same as the previous year. This good performance was supported by generally accommodative external financial conditions, the easing of domestic monetary policies and continued disinflation, the resilience of global trade and the reorganisation of trade flows in response to US tariffs, and finally, the very strong increase in investment in technology, especially in artificial intelligence (AI).

In our baseline scenario for 2026, these supportive factors are expected to continue, even if they lessen. Growth in emerging economies is expected to slow only very moderately, reaching an average of 4.1% according to our forecast. This scenario assumes, among other factors, the sustained increase in the use of AI and the rapid growth of investment in AI infrastructure. These factors will continue to drive global demand for the electronic goods, energy and critical raw materials needed for this technology.

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