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Friday the 13th not so scary

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

USD: Sept '24 is Down at 100.305.

Energies: Oct '24 Crude is Up at 69.00.

Financials: The Dec '24 30 Year T-Bond is Up 1 tick and trading at 126.24.

Indices: The Sept '24 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 26 ticks Higher and trading at 5636.00.

Gold: The Dec'24 Gold contract is trading Up at 2614.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Currently Asia is trading Mixed. All of Europe is trading Higher. with the exception of the German Dax exchange.

Possible challenges to traders

Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Lack of Major Economic News

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 year (ZN) to the 2 year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT migrated Lower at 8:30 AM EST as the Import Price data was released and began its Downward slide. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Higher at 8:30 AM and the ZT moved Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $7.625. Please note: the front month for ZT is Dec and the Dow is still Sept '24. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Dec 2024 - 09/13/24

Dow - Sept 2024- 09/13/24

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed as we didn't see much in the way of Market Correlation Friday morning. The markets migrated to the Upside after the Import Price news was released. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Friday we had University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. These are major and clearly moved the markets to the upside on Friday. The Dow gained 297 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we have Empire State Manufacturing Index which is major and a proven market mover. However this is the only news today.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

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