Friday the 13th

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 4:20 AM EST, here's what we see:

US Dollar: Dec. USD is Down at 92.885.
Energies: Nov Crude is Up at 51.34.
Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is Up 1 tick and trading at 153.04.
Indices: The Dec S&P 500 emini ES contract is 1 tick Higher and trading at 2549.75.
Gold: The Dec gold contract is trading Up at 1298.10. Gold is 16 ticks Higher than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Down- and Crude is Up+ which is normal but the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are Higher and Crude is trading Up+ which is not correlated. Gold is trading Up which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down-. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour all of Asia is trading Higher. As of this writing Europe is trading mainly Higher with the exception of the London exchange which is Lower at this hour.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Core CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Retails Sales is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.
Core Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM. This is major.
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM. This is major.
Business Inventories is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
FOMC Member Evans Speaks at 10:25 AM. This is major.
FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks at 11:30 AM. This is major
Federal Budget Balance is out at 3 PM EST. This is major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa. Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 12:30 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the YM hit a High. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 12:30 AM EST and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 12:30 AM and the YM hit a High. These charts represent the newest version of Trend Following Trades and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Please note that the front month for the ZB and the YM contract is now December, 2017.

Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform

Bias

Yesterday our bias was to the downside as the Bonds and Gold were trading Higher yesterday morning and this usually reflects a downside bias. The markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 32 points and the other indices lost ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday we had a virtual mini tsunami eco news wise as there were 9 different reports, most of which were major and could have moved the markets in any direction. Yesterday morning we called for a downside bias as we simply followed our rules of Market Correlation and they didn't disappoint or let us down. All 3 major US exchanges lost ground and dropped yesterday regardless of economic news. Today we are faced with a similar situation as we have 9 economic news reports again and it's Friday the 13th which could be very good or bad depending on your point of view. But as in all things, only time will tell...

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.