Forecasting the upcoming week: The US labour market will be in the spotlight

The Greenback managed to reverse its multi-week negative streak, as investors remained optimistic around potential negotiations in the US-China trade conflict, while the disippated Trump-Powell effervescence also added to the upbeat tone.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded with decent gains this week, although a retest of the psychological 100.00 barrier remained elusive. Key upcoming data includes the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index due on April 28, while the Advanced Goods Trade Balance is expected on April 29, alongside Wholesale Inventories, the FHFA House Price Index, JOLTS Job Openings, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, and the API’s report on US crude oil inventories. On April 30, attention turns to the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, inflation as measured by the PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, the Employment Cost Index, the flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. May 1 will bring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and Construction Spending. Finally, Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on May 2, alongside the Unemployment Rate and Factory Orders.

EUR/USD reversed four consecutive weekly gains, coming under renewed selling pressure soono after hitting new yearly peaks well north of 1.1500 the figure. On April 29, Germany’s Consumer Confidence, as measured by GfK, will be released, followed by the euro area’s Economic Sentiment Index, the final print of Consumer Confidence, and the ECB’s M3 Money Supply report. April 30 brings Germany’s Retail Sales and labour market report, along with the advanced estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate, flash Inflation Rate, and the preliminary Q1 GDP Growth Rate for the broader euro area. On May 2, the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI for both Germany and the euro bloc is due, alongside preliminary eurozone Inflation Rate and the Unemployment Rate.

GBP/USD added to the ongoing move higher, up for the third week in a row, although receding from tops past the 1.3400 hurdle recorded earlier in the week. On April 28, the CBI Distributive Trades Survey is expected. Looking ahead to May 1, the Nationwide House Price Index will be released, followed by Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the BoE’s M4 Money Supply and Consumer Credit figures.

USD/JPY set aside three straight weeks of losses and ended Friday’s session on an upbeat note near the 144.00 barrier, or two-week highs. On April 30, Japan will release preliminary Industrial Production data, along with figures for Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, and the final readings of the Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index. The BoJ’s interest rate decision is due on May 1, followed by the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Confidence survey. May 2 will bring the weekly Foreign Bond Investment data and the Unemployment Rate.

AUD/USD extended its bounce off yearly lows around 0.5900, managing to reclaim the area beyond 0.6400 for the first time since December 2024. Australia's Q1 Inflation Rate is due on April 30, followed by the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator, Housing Credit, and Private Sector Credit figures. On May 1, attention turns to the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Balance of Trade data, Commodity Prices, and Q1 Import and Export Prices. Retail Sales will take centre stage on May 2, ahead of the release of Producer Prices.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The RBA’s Kent and the BoE’s Ramsden will speak on April 29.

- The BoE’s Lombardelli speaks on April 30.

- The BoJ’s Ueda is due to speak on May 1.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The Hungarian central bank (MNB) will meet on April 29 (6.50% act, 6.50% exp).

- The BoT meets on April 30 (2.00% act, 2.00% exp).

- The BoJ will decide on rates on May 1 (0.50% act, 0.50% exp).