Forecasting the upcoming week: The FOMC Minutes will be in the spotlight

The US dollar (USD) logged its second consecutive week of losses, this time tiptoeing to levels last seen in February 2022 against its main rivals amid investors’ repricing of the Fed’s next rate cut and rising unease on the trade front as the July 9 tariff deadline looms.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) came under extra selling pressure this week, although its downside has been partially limited by firmer-than-expected results from US fundamentals in the second half of the week. The NFIB Business Optimism Index is due on July 8 alongside the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The FOMC Minutes take centre stage on July 9, seconded by the usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims are only scheduled for July 10.

EUR/USD advanced for the second consecutive week, reaching multi-year highs above the 1.1800 mark. Germany’s Industrial Production is due on July 7, followed by Retail Sales in the broader euro area and the Eurogroup Meeting. The Balance of Trade results are due in Germany on July 8, while the final Inflation Rate will come on July 10. Finally, Germany’s Current Account and Wholesale Prices will wrap up the calendar on July 11.

Despite reaching new multi-year peaks near the 1.3800 region, investors' concerns over the UK fiscal position led to a slight decline in GBP/USD towards the end of the week. The Halifax House Price Index comes out on July 7, followed by the BBA Mortgage Rate. On July 9 will come the BoE’s Financial Stability Report, while the RICS House Price Balance is expected on July 10. A busy docket on July 11 will feature GDP figures, Balance of Trade, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

Further appreciation of the Japanese Yen motivated USD/JPY to clock its second consecutive advance, remaining around the 144.50 region. Average Cash Earnings is due on July 7, followed by the preliminary Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index. On July 8 will come the Current Account results, seconded by Bank Lending readings and the Eco Watchers survey. Machine Tool Orders are scheduled for July 9, while the usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be released on July 10 ahead of Producer Prices.

AUD/USD maintained its optimism in place for the second week in a row, advancing to fresh tops in the boundaries of the key 0.6600 hurdle. The RBA meeting will take centre stage on July 8, along with the RBA Press Conference and the NAB Business Confidence gauge. On July 9 will come the final prints of Building Permits and Private House Approvals.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• ThE ECB’s Nagel will speak on July 7.
• ThE ECB’s Nagel is due to speak on July 8.
• The RBA’s Hauser and Hunter speak on July 9, seconded by the ECB’s Lane, Nagel and De Guindos.
• The Fed’s Musalem, Waller and Daly will speak on July 10, alongside the ECB’s
• Cipollone and the BoE’s Breeden.
• The ECB’s Cipollone speaks on July 11.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The RBA meets on July 2 (act. 3.85% vs. 3.60% exp.).
• The BNM will decide on rates on July 9 (act. 3.00% vs. 3.00% exp.) alongside the RBNZ (act. 3.25% vs. 3.25% exp.).