Forecasting the upcoming week: The FOMC Minutes and PCE in the spotlight

The US Dollar (USD) halted a four-week positive streak, dropping markedly to three-week troughs after President Trump reignited trade concerns following renewed threats on tariffs on US imports of EU goods.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) collapsed to the area of three-week lows near the 99.00 neighbourhood on Friday in response to the resurgence of trade jitters. There will be no activity in the US makets on May 26 in celebrance of the Memorial Day holiday. On May 27, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence will be the salient event, seconded by Durable Goods Orders, the FHFA’s House Price Index, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are due on May 28, ahead of the FOMC Minutes, the weekly report on US crude oil inventories by the API. The second estimate of Q1 GDP Growth Rate is due on May 29, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. Closing the week, the docket will feature the PCE data, Personal Income and Personal Spending, the Chicago PMI, Wholesale Inventories, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD advanced to multi-day highs on Friday, revisiting the 1.1380 area, or three-week tops, on the back of the deep sell-off in the US Dollar. On May 27, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence is due, along with EMU’s Economic Sentiment, the final Consumer Confidence print, and Consumer Inflation Expectations. Germany will release its jobs report on May 28, followed by the ECB’s Consumer Inflation Expectations survey. Retail Sales in Germany will be released on May 30, followed by the preliminary Inflation Rate, and the ECB’s M3 Money Supply.

GBP/USD maintained its weekly rally well and sound, reclaiming the 1.3500 hurdle for the first time since February 2022. The CBI Distributive Trades comes on May 27, seconded by the Nationwide Housing Prices on May 30.

USD/JPY fell to three-week lows near 142.40, adding to the weekly leg lower and maintaining losses for the fifth consecutive month so far. The final prints of the Coindicent Index and the Leading Economic Index are due on May 26, while weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures and the Consumer Confidence are expected on May 29. On May 30 will come the Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales, flash Industrial Production readings, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, and the Tokyo CPI.

AUD/USD reversed initial losses and flirted once again with the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure, or two-week peaks. The RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator is due on May 28 ahead of Construction Work Done in Q1. The Q1 Private Capital Expenditure takes centre stage on May 29, while Building Permits, Private House Approvals, Private Sector Credit figures, and Housing Credit will all wrap up the weekly calendar on May 30.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The ECB’s Lagarde speaks on May 26

- The Fed’s Kashkari will speak on May 27.

- The Fed’s Williams and Kashkari will speak on May 28, along with the BoE’s Pill.

- The Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee, Kugler, and Daly will all speak on May 29.

- The Fed’s Logan and Bostic are expected to speak on May30.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The Hungarian central bank (BNM) will decide on rates on May 27 (6.50% act., 6.50% exp.)

- The RBNZ meets on May 28 (3.50% act, 3.25% exp.)

- The SARB (7.50% act, 7.50% exp.) and the BoK (2.75% act., 2.50% exp.) will meet on May 29.