The Federal Reserve is odds-on to raise rates this week but that does not mean this is a dead meeting. The outlook for the future path of rates remains highly uncertain with the Fed itself wrangling over whether it can stick to at least three 25-basis-point increases next year.

With the hike fully expected by markets, the focus for the meeting this week is on the updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot, as well as the language employed by Janet Yellen in the post-meeting press conference.

The economic picture seems barely altered: inflation is still not firing despite solid jobs and growth numbers. Apart from the changes to the FOMC itself, the big difference from the September meeting is the progress on tax reform.

Uncertainty

The dot plot and other economic projections will convey less conviction to the markets than before since there is considerable uncertainty about the make-up of the Fed next year. Although Jerome Powell is all but secure as the next Fed chair – and one that will not break with the Yellen doctrine – there are four seats on the board of governors to fill. This makes it problematic to read too much into the projected path of monetary policy. Nevertheless, changes to forecasts will be treated with due reverence and any upward or downward revisions will drive short-term price action in the US Dollar and Treasuries.

Tax reform

When the most recent dot plots were published in September officials had yet to price in fiscal stimulus into their forecasts. FOMC members may not officially recognise the impact of tax reform, preferring to wait until it becomes law. However, with the bill looking likely to pass, the Fed may find scope to turn a touch more hawkish.

If policymakers decide to factor in tax reform, it could see the median fed funds rate projection pushed up slightly for 2018 and 2019.

While the FOMC may prefer to ignore fiscal reforms until they are on the statute book, markets will look to Yellen’s press conference for a clearer indication of how policymakers view the impact on monetary policy.

Yield curve

Complicating things for the FOMC is a flattening yield curve. Rising short term rates and flat longer-date yields mean the yield curve has flattened considerably in 2017. If the curve goes beyond flattening and inverts – i.e. short-date debt carries a higher yield than longer-dated debt - a recession often follows (see chart). The risk is that the Fed tightens short-term rates too quickly without longer-end of the curve following suit, resulting in a ‘policy mistake’. Doubts about the impact of tax reform on longer-term growth potential mean the effect of fiscal reform on longer-dated yields has been less than some forecast.

What the data indicates and how the economic projections could change:

GROWTH

US GDP expansion has kicked up a gear or two in the last two quarters of 2017. Following the rather lacklustre performance in Q1, (+1.4%), growth has run at above 3% year-over-year in the following six months. Q2 recorded 3.1% growth, the fastest pace in two years with the final reading higher than the first two estimates. The second reading of the Q3 print was a very robust 3.3%, which was also ahead of expectations.

Estimates for the fourth quarter are, as ever, in a pretty wide range. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.9% for Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1. The Atlanta Fed’s estimate has eased to 2.9% for Q4. Assuming a 3% expansion in Q4, the Fed would have to revise its 2017 median change in real GDP projection up from 2.4% in September to 2.6%.

Stronger growth in the last nine months may also help the FOMC firm up its 2018 projections, with it seemingly likely that members will see growth next year around 2.5%, against a 2.1% median forecast in September. We also envisage the Fed will upgrade its growth projections for 2019.

JOBS

The unemployment rate has continued to fall since the last round of economic projections. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that unemployment was steady at 4.1%, its lowest level since 2001 and down from the 4.4% at the time of the last projections and 4.7% at the start of 2017. The Fed will likely revise down its unemployment rate projections by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, implying a sub-4% rate in 2018 and 2019.

WAGES

Earnings growth remains more muted, consistent with the trend throughout 2017.  The latest data continued the annual rate of wage growth at 2.5%. The continued lack of uplift in earnings in spite of falling unemployment continues to exert a downward influence on inflation expectations.

INFLATION

On inflation, there is better news which may see policymakers be less concerned that subdued price growth becoming more entrenched. Officials, including Janet Yellen, have stressed that the undershoot in core inflation – which has lasted for more than five years – is down to transitory factors but in recent meetings they have started to express worries that it might reflect something more persistent.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the Fed’s preferred gauge) climbed by 0.2 per cent in October. Through October, the core PCE rate was at 1.4% year-over-year. Although this is down from the 1.8% area achieved in the early part of the year, there are signs that the decline in the rate over the summer months has been arrested.

Whilst showing signs of improvement, the Fed has been over-optimistic on PCE inflation projections and the improvement is unlikely to see the Fed alter its outlook from September, which stood at 1.5% for 2017, 1.9% for 2019 and 2.0% in 2019.  

New dot plots?

So will we get a new set of dots, or will the FOMC copy and paste September’s outlook (below)?

In the last dot plots the two most dovish members had forecasts the fed fund rate at 1-1.25% in 2018. With the hike to 1.25-1.5% , they will be forced to capitulate and this will shift the median rate northwards a shade. A stronger economic growth trend may also nudge one or two of the next cohort of dovish members to join the consensus around the 2-2.25% mark.

Beyond this the question is whether Fed officials start to factor in tax reform. If they do it may signal a median fed funds rate in the region of 2.3-2.5% in 2018.

Financial conditions continue to ease despite the Fed hiking rates. The weakness in the US Dollar throughout 2017 has contributed a degree of easing to compensate the Fed’s actions and with the market coming around to 3 hikes next year it will take the Fed to signal consensus on 4 hikes to significantly move the needle for USD. The barriers for the USD to rally are higher still as the market has traditionally been slow to accept the Fed is able to tighten as quickly as the dots indicate. 

RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT In consideration of Safecap Limited (“Safecap”) agreeing to enter into over-the-counter (“OTC”) contracts for differences (“CFDs”) and spot foreign exchange contracts (“Spot FX Contracts”) with the undersigned (hereinafter referred to as the “Customer”, “you”, “your”), Customer acknowledges, understands and agrees that: 1. Trading Is Very Speculative and Risky. Trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts is highly speculative and is suitable only for those customers who (a) understand and are willing to assume the economic, legal and other risks involved, and (b) are financially able to assume losses significantly in excess of margin or deposits. Neither CFDs nor Spot FX Contracts are appropriate investments for retirement funds. Customer represents, warrants and agrees that Customer understands these risks, is willing and able, financially and otherwise, to assume the risks of trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts and that the loss of Customer’s entire Account balance will not change Customer’s lifestyle. 2. High Leverage And Low Margin Can Lead To Quick Losses. A high degree of leverage is associated with both CFDs and Spot FX Contracts, which generally involves a small deposit relative to the size of the Transaction. This can be both advantageous and disadvantageous. A small price movement in your favour can provide a high return on the deposit, however, a small price movement against you may result in significant losses which could exceed the money placed on deposit. Such losses can occur quickly. 3. Margin Requirements. Customer must maintain the minimum margin requirement on their open positions at all times. It is Customer's responsibility to monitor his/her Account balance. Safecap has the right to liquidate any or all open positions whenever the minimum margin requirement is not maintained and this may result in Customer’s CFDs or Spot FX Contracts being closed at a loss for which you will be liable. 4. Cash Settlement. CFD and Spot FX Contracts can only be settled in cash. 5. Conflicts of Interest. Safecap is the counterparty to all Transactions entered into under the Customer Agreement and, as such, Safecap’s interests may be in conflict with yours. Our conflicts of interest policy is available at Safecap website. 6. OTC Transactions. When trading CFDs or Spot FX Contracts with us, such Transactions will not be executed on a recognized or designated investment exchange and are known as OTC transactions. All positions entered into with us must be closed with us and cannot be closed with any other entity. OTC transactions may involve greater risk than investing in on-exchange contracts because there is no exchange market on which to close out an open position. It may be impossible to liquidate an existing position, to assess the value of the position arising from an OTC transaction or to assess the exposure to risk. Bid Prices and Ask Prices need not be quoted by us, based on best execution policies applicable in the market. There is no central clearing and no guarantee by any other party of Safecap’s payment obligations to the Customer. Customer must look only to Safecap for performance of all contracts in Customer’s Account and for return of any Margin or collateral. 7. CFDs and Spot FX Contracts. Trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts carries a high degree of risk. The gearing or leverage often obtainable in such trading means that a relatively small market movement can lead to a proportionately much larger movement in the value of your liability. You should be aware of the implications of this, in particular, the Margin requirements. 8. Prices, Margin And Valuations Are Set By Safecap And May Be Different From Prices Reported Elsewhere. Safecap will provide prices to be used in trading, valuation of Customer positions and determination of Margin requirements in accordance with its Trading Policies and Procedures and Market Information Sheets. The performance of your CFD or Spot FX Contract will depend on the prices set by Safecap and market fluctuations in the underlying asset to which your contract relates. Our prices for a given market are calculated by reference to the price of the relevant underlying asset which we obtain from third party external reference sources or exchanges. For our Spot FX Contracts, we obtain price data from wholesale market participants. 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Where the CFD or Spot FX Contract is settled in a currency other than your base currency, the value of your return may be affected by its conversion into the base currency. 12. One Click Trading And Immediate Execution. Safecap’s Online Trading System provide immediate transmission of Customer’s Order once Customer enters the notional amount and clicks “Buy/Sell.” This means that there is no opportunity to review the Order after clicking “Buy/Sell” and Market Orders cannot be cancelled. This feature may be different from other trading systems you have used. Customer should utilize the Demo Trading System to become familiar with the Online Trading System before actually trading online with Safecap. Customer acknowledges and agrees that by using Safecap’s Online Trading System, Customer agrees to the one-click system and accepts the risk of this immediate transmission feature. 13. Telephone Orders And Immediate Execution. Market Orders executed through the Safecap Trading Desk are completed when the Safecap telephone operator says “deal” or “done” following Customer’s placing of an Order. Upon such confirmation of the telephone operator, Customer has bought or sold and cannot cancel the Market Order. By placing Market Orders through the Safecap Trading Desk, Customer agrees to such immediate execution and accepts the risk of this immediate execution feature. 14. Safecap Is Not An Adviser Or A Fiduciary To Customer. Where Safecap provides generic market recommendations, such generic recommendations do not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice and have not considered any of your personal circumstances or your investment objectives, nor is it an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any Foreign Exchange Contracts or Cross Currency Contracts. 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The generic market recommendations provided by Safecap are based solely on the judgment of Safecap’s personnel and should be considered as such. Customer acknowledges that it enters into any Transactions relying on its own judgment. Any market recommendations provided are generic only and may or may not be consistent with the market positions or intentions of Safecap and/or its affiliates. The generic market recommendations of Safecap are based upon information believed to be reliable, but Safecap cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness thereof or represent that following such generic recommendations will reduce or eliminate the risk inherent in trading CFDS and/or Spot FX Contracts. 16. No Guarantees Of Profit. There are no guarantees of profit nor of avoiding losses when trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts. Customer has received no such guarantees from Safecap or from any of its representatives. Customer is aware of the risks inherent in trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts and is financially able to bear such risks and withstand any losses incurred. 17. Customer May Not Be Able To Close Open Positions. Due to market conditions which may cause any unusual market price fluctuations, or other circumstances Safecap may be unable to close out Customer’s position at the price specified by Customer and Customer agrees that Safecap will bear no liability for a failure to do so. 18. Internet Trading. When Customer trades online (via the internet), Safecap shall not be liable for any claims, losses, damages, costs or expenses, caused, directly or indirectly, by any malfunction or failure of any transmission, communication system, computer facility or trading software, whether belonging to Safecap, Customer, any exchange or any settlement or clearing system. 19. Telephone Orders. Safecap is not responsible for disruption, failure or malfunction of telephone facilities and does not guarantee its telephone availability. For the avoidance of doubt, Customer is aware that Safecap may not be reachable by telephone at all times. 20. Quoting Errors. Should a quoting error occur (including responses to Customer requests), Safecap is not liable for any resulting errors in Account balances and reserves the right to make necessary corrections or adjustments to the relevant Account. Any dispute arising from such quoting errors will be resolved on the basis of the fair market value, as determined by Safecap in its sole discretion and acting in good faith, of the relevant market at the time such an error occurred. In cases where the prevailing market represents prices different from the prices Safecap has posted on our screen, Safecap will attempt, on a best efforts basis, to execute Transactions on or close to the prevailing market prices. These prevailing market prices will be the prices, which are ultimately reflected on the Customer statements. This may or may not adversely affect the Customer’s realized and unrealized gains and losses. 21. Compensation. Safecap participates in the Investor Compensation Fund for clients of Investment Firms regulated in the Republic of Cyprus. Customers will be entitled to compensation under the Investor Compensation Fund where we are unable to meet our duties and obligations arising from your claim. Any compensation provided to you by the Investor Compensation Fund shall not exceed twenty thousand Euro (20.000). This applies to your aggregate claims against us. TRADING POLICIES AND PROCEDURES 1. INTRODUCTION Safecap’s Trading Policies and Procedures are an integral part of your Customer Agreement. It is your responsibility to carefully read these Trading Policies and Procedures and to inform Safecap of any questions or objections that you may have regarding them before entering each and every Transaction. You agree, represent, warrant and certify that you understand and accept Safecap’s Trading Policies and Procedures, as set forth here and as may be amended from time to time by Safecap, in its sole discretion, and you agree to comply with Safecap’s Trading Policies and Procedures. Terms capitalized in these Trading Policies and Procedures are defined in the Glossary as found on Safecap website. 2. TRADING HOURS All references to Safecap’s hours of trading are in Greenwich Mean Time (“GMT”) using 24-hour format. Safecap normally provides access for trading CFDs and Spot FX Contracts via the Website from 21:00 GMT on Sunday to 21:00 GMT on Friday. Please refer to our “Instruments Table” for additional information. Safecap reserves the right to suspend or modify its trading hours at any time and on such an event will inform Customers in advance on a best efforts basis of any changes in its trading hours. Following submission of an Order, it is the sole responsibility of Customer to remain available for Order and Fill confirmations, and other communications regarding Customer’s Account until all open Orders are completed. Thereafter, Customer must monitor Customer’s Account frequently when Customer has Open Positions in the Account. 3. BEST EXECUTION 1. Safecap is authorized and regulated by Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission. We are required to take all reasonable steps to obtain the best possible result when executing client Orders. We are required to have an execution policy and to provide our clients with appropriate information in relation to our execution policy. Where you place Orders with us, the execution factors that we consider and their relative importance is as set out below: 1. Price. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 2. Speed. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 3. Likelihood of execution and settlement. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 4. Size. The relative importance we attach is “high”. 2. We are the principal to every Order you place with us and therefore we are the only execution venue. 4. ORDERS 1. Orders Placement. All Orders must be placed through the Safecap Online Trading System or by telephone to the Safecap Trading Desk. Telephone Orders are accepted in the sole discretion of Safecap. 2. Types of Orders Accepted. Some of the types of Orders Safecap accepts include, but are not limited to: 1. Good till Canceled (“GTC”) - An Order (other than a Market Order), that by its terms is effective until filled or canceled by Customer. GTC Orders do not automatically cancel at the end of the Business Day on which they are placed. 2. Limit - An Order (other than a Market Order) to buy or sell the identified market at a specified price. A Limit Order to buy generally will be executed when the Ask Price equals or falls below the Bid Price that you specify in the Limit Order. A Limit Order to sell generally will be executed when the Bid Price equals or exceeds the As Price that you specify in the Limit Order. 3. Market - An Order to buy or sell the identified market at the current market price that Safecap provides either via the Online Trading System or over the telephone through one of the dealers. An Order to buy is executed at the current market Ask Price and an Order to sell is executed at the current market Bid Price. 4. One Cancels the Other (“OCO”)- An Order that is linked to another Order. If one of the Orders is executed, the other will be automatically cancelled. 5. Stop Loss - A Stop Loss Order is an instruction to buy or sell a market at a price which is worse than the opening price of an open position (or worse than the prevailing price when applying the Stop Loss Order to an already open position). It can be used to help protect against losses. Please note that because of market gapping, the best available price that may be achieved could be materially different to the price set on the Stop Loss Order and as such, Stop Loss Orders are not guaranteed to take effect at the price for which they are set. 6. Trailing Stop - A Trailing Stop is the same as a Stop Loss Order with the only difference being that, instead of setting a price at which the Order is activated, the Trailing Stop Order is activated at a fixed distance from the market price. 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A new window will appear in which the Customer enters the price and lot size. The Order is filled shortly after the Customer hits the OK button provided the Customer has sufficient funds in his Account. Orders may fail for several reasons including changing dealer prices, insufficient margin, unspecified lot size or unanticipated technical difficulties. 2. One-Click Trading. To use one-click trading, Customer must go to the “Settings” menu and choose “View and Edit”. Customer should check the “One-Click Trading” box. To enter an online Order with one-click trading, the Customer must access the Markets window and enter the price and lot size. The Order is filled shortly after the Customer clicks the BUY/SELL button provided the Customer has sufficient funds in his Account. Orders may fail for several reasons including changing dealer prices, insufficient margin, unspecified lot size or unanticipated technical difficulties. One-Click Trading can also be used when closing positions. 3. 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Safecap has the right to liquidate any or all Open Positions whenever the Minimum Margin Requirement is not maintained. 7. MARGIN CALLS Safecap maintains the right to liquidate Customer positions as set out above and is under no obligation to make calls for margin. However, Customer will receive an automatic margin call notification when logged in to the Online Trading System if the Account Equity in the Online Trading System equals to or falls below 100% of the minimum margin needed to open the position(s) held (the minimum margin needed to open position(s) is referred to in the Online Trading System as ‘Used Margin’). In addition, Safecap may contact Customer and request that Customer deposit additional Collateral to secure Customer’s obligations to Safecap. Any call for additional margin without exercising the rights to liquidate Customer positions shall not be deemed precedent for future calls act as a waiver of liquidation rights by Safecap. Safecap may allow the Customer to maintain Open Positions even if the Customer has not met one or more Margin payment which is/ are due, in Safecap’s sole discretion and upon approval by the Risk Committee. 8. LIQUIDATION LEVEL Subject to all additional rights of Safecap under the Customer Agreement, in the event that the liquid funds in the Customer Account should, at any time equal or fall below 20% of the Used Margin for Customer’s Account in the aggregate, Safecap will have the right but not the obligation to close any part of or all of Customer’s Open Positions. Any failure by Safecap to enforce its rights hereunder shall not be deemed as a waiver of such rights by Safecap. Safecap may contact the Customer via the means designated by the Customer to make a call for Margin in order to secure Customer’s obligations to Safecap but is not obliged to do so. Any call for Margin without exercising the rights to liquidate Customer positions shall not be deemed a precedent for future conduct and Safecap maintains the right to liquidate Customer Positions without calling Margin. 9. WITHDRAWALS Payments from a Customer Account require a withdrawal request form signed by all required account holders and submitted in writing to Safecap. The withdrawal process requires a minimum of three (3) Business Days from receipt of the withdrawal request to the issuance of payment. Safecap will transfer any funds owing to you to your nominated bank account. Only funds owing to you and not being utilized for margin purposes or any other obligations to Safecap may be withdrawn. If a withdrawal request is for funds in excess of those funds that are available for withdrawal, Safecap will not comply with the request and the Customer will be notified accordingly. I / WE HAVE READ, UNDERSTOOD AND AGREE TO THE RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND THE TRADING POLICIES AND PROCEDURES SET OUT ABOVE

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