Market movers today

Today's key event is the release of the FOMC minutes from the June meeting. Of particular interest are the Fed members' discussions on yield curve control, as mentioned by Fed Chair Powell in his prepared remarks at the press conference after the policy announcement. For more see Fed Monitor: A primer on Fed's discussions on changing its forward guidance, 17 June.

June unemployment data out of Germany are due at 09:55 CEST.

In the US, the ADP jobs report for June is due for release at 14:15 CEST. This may provide some insight in the official jobs report on Thursday (although it is not usually considered a reliable indicator). Also the ISM manufacturing index for June due out at 16:00 CEST is interesting, although we have already got the similar PMI index.

In Norway and Sweden, PMI manufacturing indices for June are due at 08:30 CEST and 10:00 CEST, respectively.

Riksbank rate announcement at 09:30 CEST. No policy change expected but this time around it seems likely that the Riksbank will present actual forecasts for growth inflation and the policy rate rather than just different scenarios as was the case in the previous policy report. We do not foresee any particular market movements on today's announcement.

Today, Germany takes over the EU presidency, in what can shape the EU permanently as the Next Generation EU and the recovery fund is expected to be finalised.


Selected market news

Risk sentiment was choppy yesterday, with global equities ending mixed, mainly split between positive performance in the US and negative performance in Europe. US equities ended their best quarter in more than 20 years. The congressional hearing of Powell and Mnuchin did not contain new elements and we look forward to the minutes tonight (see above). The positive sentiment has spilled over to the Asian session.

Euro area inflation ticked up to 0.26% in June from 0.09% in May, with the main driver being energy prices (-9.35% from -11.95%), which are starting to recover as the trough in the oil price is behind us. Core inflation dipped back to 0.82% from 0.90% in May, driven by lower service price inflation and NEIG inflation. From next month onwards, core inflation is set to take a marked dive though, with the effects of the temporary German VAT cut, see Euro Area Research, 11 June.

Yesterday, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel joined her colleagues at the Governing council in repeating that the ECB may not need to use the full EUR1350bn PEPP envelope and that it seems unlikely that PEPP needs expanding. Looking beyond ECB, this stance of central banks not adding additional stimuli now mirrors comments in Fed and BoE.

Similar to the official PMI numbers yesterday, the private Caixin index rose and beat expectations at 51.2 versus 50.7 in May.


Download The Full Daily FX Market Commentary

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Bears trying to sneak in below 0.6950 but bulls give a healthy fight

AUD/USD kick-starts the week with a gap-down, seesaws around 0.6930 afterward. A surge in the virus cases, hospitalizations in the US, escalating Sino-American tension question market sentiment. 


USD/JPY slightly offered in the open, eyes on coronavirus headlines

The yen has picked up a start of the week bid across the board, moving up against the US dollar by 5 pips to a low of 107.42 from high of 107.47, falling further away from the end of week 107.50s. 


Gold: Buyers can ignore soft weekly open below $1,775

Gold prices offered a downside gap near $1,774 to kick-start with the week on a back foot. Pandemic fears, geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven buyers strong amid global policymakers’ fight against economic suppression.

Gold News

WTI bulls step up to the plate despite covid-19 risks

WTI is making tracks to the upside at the start of the week, rising some .4%. Last week's closing session had US futures in WTI fell back towards $40, with the August contract closing at $40.32, while Brent Sep closed at $42.80. 

Oil News

Macro considerations in the week ahead

The risk assets had been rallying since mid-March in anticipation of an economic recovery and fueled by the massive liquidity provided by central banks and the spending plans of governments. 

Read more

Forex Majors