FOMC in focus, NZD rising

Important news this week

Wed, 08th, 04:00 CET NZ RBNZ interest rate decision.
Wed, 08th, 20:00 CET US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Fri, 10th, 14:30 CET CA Unemployment Claims.

Geopolitical risks return as markets watch Iran closely

Markets are once again focused on the Middle East after reports of renewed US strikes on Iranian targets despite ongoing ceasefire efforts and continued peace talks. The developments have increased uncertainty, although investors are still waiting to see whether tensions escalate further or remain contained. For now, the US dollar is trading sideways but retains the potential to strengthen should demand for safe-haven assets increase. At the same time, oil prices are reacting to the headlines, with prices holding near important technical support. If geopolitical tensions intensify further, crude oil could stage a stronger rebound as markets begin pricing in supply risks again.

Equity markets have shown only a limited reaction so far. The S&P 500 continues to trade in a broad sideways range, suggesting investors are not yet expecting a significant economic impact. The Nasdaq, however, is approaching an important technical support level. A decisive break below this area could trigger a broader correction after months of strong gains. In FX markets, GBPUSD is testing the 50-day moving average. Failure to hold above this level could lead to an initial weakening of Sterling against the US dollar as traders reduce risk exposure.

Market talk

Market sentiment remains balanced between geopolitical uncertainty and resilient economic fundamentals. While equities have not yet entered a clear risk-off phase, renewed tensions in the Middle East could quickly change investor positioning. The US dollar remains the primary safe-haven asset to watch, while oil prices will continue to provide important signals about market expectations regarding the conflict. If oil resumes its upward trend and the dollar strengthens simultaneously, pressure on equities and precious metals could increase. For now, markets remain cautious, with traders awaiting further geopolitical developments before committing to a stronger directional move.

Tendencies in the markets

• Equities correcting, USD stronger, BTC weak, oil rising, Silver sideways, Gold sideways.