Focus tomorrow on AU Q2 CPI and JP BoJ decision with FOMC tomorrow night

Asia market update: Markets in wait-mode for Wed-Fri data; Focus tomorrow on AU Q2 CPI & JP BOJ decision with FOMC tomorrow night.

General trend

- Asian markets were in cautionary mode during relatively light trading with all major indices recording losses ahead of large data releases later in the week.

- Big data releases from Wednesday onward include AU CPI; The BOJ, Fed and BOE rate decisions; US July ISM Mfg PMI: US July NFP’s; Also US tech ‘Magnificent 7’ Q2 earnings due from Microsoft, Meta, Apple & Amazon.

- Japan recorded its lowest jobless rate since January.

- USD/JPY 1-day implied volatility rose above 25.9 ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ rate decision, followed by the Fed FOMC tomorrow night.

- China 30-year Bond FUTS again hit record high; 10yr yields down to 2.13%.

- Fall out from disputed election in Venezuela (officially won by incumbent Maduro) continues to build, with widespread protests and a promise by Pres Maduro to crack down on protestors. Peru orders its diplomats to leave the country.

- US equity FUTs -0.1% to -0.2% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Tue 30th (Tue eve EU, DE, FR, IT prelim Q2 GDP, Tue night DE July CPI, US Jun JOLTS).

- Wed 31st AU Q2 CPI, CN NBS Mfg PMI, JP Jun Ind Prod + Retail Sales, JP BOJ rates/bond purchase decisions (Wed eve EU July flash CPI, Wed night US Fed rate decision + Presser).

- Thu 1st AU Balance of Trade, CN Caixin Mgf PMI, (Thu eve BOE rate decision, Thu night US ISM July Mfg PMI).

- Fri 2nd KR July CPI, AU Q2 PPI, (Fri night US July NFP).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon July 29th Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens -0.2% at 7,971.

- Australia Jun Building Approvals M/M: -6.5% v -2.3%e.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 83.1 v 84.4 prior (update).

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -0.3% at 17,194; Shanghai Composite opens -0.2% at 2,885.

- China PBOC official said China should maintain positive real rates – PBOC-backed Financial News.

- China Customs Official Lyu Daliang: China's external trading environment is increasingly uncertain - financial press, at briefing.

- China Jun Smartphone Shipments Y/Y: +14.3% v +16.5% prior - CAICT [overnight update].

- Citigroup cuts China 2024 GDP growth forecast from 5.0% to 4.8% overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1364 v 7.1316 prior (weakest since Nov 21st, 2023).

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY216B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY51B v net injects CNY243B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens -0.6% at 38,241.

- Japan Jun jobless rate: 2.5% V 2.6%E [lowest since Jan].

- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi: Reiterates specifics of monetary policy are up to the BOJ to decide.

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki: Vital to address wage growth, child policy and defense strategy [overnight update].

- Japan Economic Council says Govt, BOJ should be mindful of weak Yen currency when guiding policy (inline) - Japanese press [overnight update].

South Korea

- Kospi opens -0.8% at 2,744.

- South Korea Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.1% v 8.8% prior.

Other Asia

- Taiwan financial regulator to allow listing of new ETF products by end-2024 - Taiwan press.

- Taiwan Jun Monitoring Leading Indicator: 38 v 36 prior [overnight update].

North America

- (VE) Violent protests erupt in Caracas after Maduro claims election victory.

- (US) July Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity: -17.5 V -14.2E.

- (US) House Speaker Johnson: Biden's Supreme Court reforms are DOA.

- Former Pres Trump confirmed plan to create a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile if elected.

- (US) FBI Deputy Director: motive is still not clear regarding attempted assassination attempt of former President Trump.

- *(US) Treasury quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $740B in July-Sep quarter v $760BE and $847B prior estimate; Oct-Dec to borrow $565B V $670BE.

Europe

- (UK) July BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.0%e (prior 0.2%).

- (IL) Israeli PM Netanyahu: Hezbollah launched rocket with Iranian backing; Pledge harsh retaliation for Golan attack.

- (UK) Jun net consumer credit: £1.2B V £1.3BE; net lending: £2.7B V £1.1BE.

- (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Reeves: Total pressures on the budgets are an additional £35B with a £22B short fall in 2024; If left unaddressed this would result in a 25% budget increase in deficit in 2024; Plans to cut spending projects worth a total of £5.5B in 2024/2025.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 -0.2; ASX 200 -0.6%; Hang Seng -1.1%; Shanghai Composite -0.6%; Kospi -1.2%.

- Equity S&P500 FUTs -0.1%; Nasdaq100 FUTs -0.2%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 -0.2%.

- EUR 1.0814-1.0825: JPY 153.62-154.60; AUD 0.6533-0.6558; NZD 0.5864-0.5894.

- Gold +0.3% at $2,431/oz; Crude Oil +-0.4% at $75.48/brl; Copper -0.9% at $4.0572/lb.