Focus on EU and US Q1 GDP, US Mar Core PCE, BoJ rate decision

Asia Market Update: Economic soft v hard data debate heats up amid slew of macro data releases; Focus on EU + US Q1 GDP, US Mar Core PCE, BOJ rate decision.

General trend

- Super Micro was down 15% on a big earnings miss, assisting Nasdaq FUTs lose -0.7% after hours, undoing what had overall been a positive NY session. Tokyo Electron to report out of Tokyo after the close.

- Little movement in Asian equities, with no stand out outperformers or underperformers. Currencies also quiet ahead of Japan's BOJ tomorrow.

- In trade news US Pres Trump threatened that if trade negotiations take too long then “we'll just set a price”; India, France, and China Officials are coming to make a trade deal, and will be talking with the Australia PM about trade.

- Australian inflation slightly hotter than expected in headline figures but recorded the lowest annual trimmed mean inflation rate since Dec 2021, with Services inflation y/y lowest since June 2022. Treasurer Chalmers expects more rate cuts following today. (AU 3 yr yield now about flat, had been down about 5bps).

- Tariffs already showing a slowdown effect in China, with National Manufacturing PMI coming in at only 49.0 for the first contraction in three months and lowest since Dec 2023, although April’s Caixin PMI released almost simultaneously managed to stay in slight expansionary territory.

- Overall, global confidence appears to be impacted by Trump tariffs, with US Consumer Confidence at its lowest since 2011, while today New Zealand Business Confidence fell back below 50 for first time since July 2024. The soft vs hard data debate only seen to be intensifying with US Treas Sec Bessent saying the hard data looked “quite good”. Note that Q1 EU & US GDP due tonight plus US Mar Core PCE.

- LG Energy said to accelerate its decoupling from China supply chains.

- Japan Mar Annualized Housing Starts came in blistering hot, around 220K more than expected, over 1M, with y/y starts +39.1% v the 1.0% expected.

- Japan BOJ tomorrow will release its projections for FY27 for the first time.

- Only New Zealand, Australia and Japan markets open tomorrow with May Day holidays through most of Asia.

- US equity FUTs -0.5% to -0.6% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted news, using Asian time zone)

- Wed Apr 30th (Wed eve EU Q1 GDP, DE Apr CPI, US Q1 GDP, US Mar Core PCE).

- Thu May 1st KR Apr Exports, AU Mar Trade Balance, JP BOJ Rate Decision, JP Apr Consumer Confidence (Thu night US Apr ISM Mfg PMI).

- Fri May 2nd KR Apr CPI, KR Apr PMI, AU Q1 PPI, AU Mar Retail Sales, (Thu eve EU Apr CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Tue Apr 29th Japan.

- Wed Apr 30th Vietnam.

- Thu May 1st China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam.

- Fri May 2nd China.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 8,069.

- Australia Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.3%E.

- Australia MAR CPI Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.2%E.

- Australia Mar Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5% prior.

- Australia Treasurer Chalmers: Market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures; does not see anything in the numbers that would 'substantially' alter market expectations [comments after Q1 and Mar CPI data].

- New Zealand Apr ANZ Business Confidence: 49.3 v 57.5 prior (lowest since July 2024).

- New Zealand Ministry: Job ads declined for the 10th straight quarter during Q1 - Press.

- US Pres Trump: Will be talking with the Australia PM about trade [overnight update].

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.1% at 22,038; Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 3,284.

- CHINA APR MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.0 V 49.7E (1st contraction in 3 months, matches the lowest since Dec 2023].

- CHINA APR CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.4 V 49.7E (7th month of expansion).

- HKMA lent HK$50M to banks through the discount window on Apr 29th – update.

- China NPC Standing Committee passes private sector promotion law; To take effect May 20th - Xinhua.

- China said to have recently waived import tariffs on US ethane – press [overnight update].

- China govt said to have advanced this year's stimulus plans but is holding off on fresh measures as it tries to maintain composure, betting on Washington blinking first in a protracted trade war - financial press [overnight update].

- China govt said to ask drugmakers and hospitals to find substitutes for US imports – press [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.2014 v 7.2029 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY531B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY423B v injects CNY120B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.2% at 35,927.

- Japan Mar Retail Sales M/M: -1.2% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: 3.1% V 3.5%E.

- Japan Mar preliminary industrial production M/M: -1.1% V -0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.3% V 0.7%E.

- Japan Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 1.08M v 790Ke; Y/Y: 39.1% v +1.0%e.

- Japan's Econ Revitalization Min and Trade Negotiator Akazawa: Aim to make progress in US trade talks - financial press.

- 18 of Japan's 47 prefectures have offered financial aid to businesses due to US tariffs - Japanese press.

Korea

- Kospi opens -0.2% at 2,561.

- South Korea Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.9% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 3.2%e.

- South Korea Industry Ministry: Mi Ahn to visit Washington on Wed for tariff discussions with USTR – statement.

- South Korea Fin Min Choi: Not rushing to negotiate on tariffs with the US - financial press.

- South Korea Industry Ministry: Officials to visit the US Apr 30-May 1; to hold technical discussions with the USTR.

- South Korea prosecutors said to be searching Former Pres Yoon's residence – press.

- South Korea lawmaker: Monitoring potential surprise summit between North Korea and US - South Korea pres.

- North Korea said to conduct test firing of a new war ship – press [overnight update].

Other Asia

- Singapore Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.3% prior.

- Follow up: Taiwan said to consider establishing Sovereign Wealth Fund - financial press.

- Pakistan Information Min: Believe India is planning an attack within the next 24-36 hours - televised address [overnight update].

North America

- US Pres Trump: If trade negotiations take too long then we'll just set a price; India, France, and China Officials are coming to make a trade deal.

- Chile central bank (BCCH) leaves overnight rate target unchanged at 5.00%; as expected.

- (US) Mar advance goods trade balance: -$162.0B V -$143.0BE (largest in history).

- (US) MAR PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 0.5% V 0.7%E.

- (US) White House Press Sec Leavitt: Pres Trump notes Amazon decision to list tariff price breakdown as 'hostile'.

- (US) FEB FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E.

- (US) Apr consumer confidence: 86.0 V 86.7E; lowest level since Oct 2011.

- (US) MAR JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 7.192M V 7.500ME.

- (US) Nevada reports Mar casino gaming Rev $1.28B, -1.1% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $681.7M, -4.8% y/y.

- Reportedly tariff price notice was never under consideration for main Amazon website - Washington Post cites Amazon spokesperson.

- (US) White House auto tariff relief announcement to include de-stacking and rebates - CNBC.

- (US) US Commerce Sec Lutnick: Have a trade deal done but waiting on PM and Parliament approval - CNBC.

- (EU) Reportedly USTR Greer indicated that Europe is not engaging well on tariff talks - press on X.

- (US) US Pres Trump: India is coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs; If automakers can't get parts, we don't want to penalize them; We're going to be reducing people's taxes; There's great support for a tax deal.

- (US) Reportedly Trump Administration is working on changes to Biden Administration rule that would limit many countries' access to US designed AI chips - press.

Europe

- (UK) Apr Lloyds Business Barometer: 39 v 49 prior.

- (IE) Ireland Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 3.2% v 3.6% prior; Y/Y: 13.3% v 9.2% prior.

- (HU) Hungary central bank (MNB) leaves base rate unchanged at 6.50%; as expected.

- (UK) Chancellor (Fin Min) Reeves: Will present Govt's financial services competitiveness strategy on July 15th.

- (EU) ECB's Stournaras (Greece): ECB should be cautious on further rate cuts; Rates are likely to down to 2% in 2025.

- FR.FR Q1 Rev €5.31B v €5.42B y/y; Affirms guidance; Making rapid progress on neutralizing the direct impact of tariffs.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 +0.3%, Hang Seng flat; Shanghai Composite -0.1%; Kospi -0.4%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures -0.5%; Nasdaq100 -0.6%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 -0.3%.

- EUR 113.55-1.1396; JPY 142.16-142.56; AUD 0.6379-0.6416; NZD 0.5923-0.5947.

- Gold -0.4% at $3,322/oz; Crude Oil -1.3% $59.63/bbl; Copper -0.9% at $4.8205/lb.