Financial astrology: Forecast 2019

KEY DATES:      January 4, 20/21

DJIA:                    Trading Target 24719

SPX:                     Trading Target 2673

NASDAQ:           R1 6903 
GOLD:                 R1 1280  R2 1300 R3 1325  R4 1350 R5 1400T

SILVER:              1500 SUPPORT R115.50 R2 16 R3 18

OIL:                      R1 50 R2 55  R3 58 R4 60

COPPER:             STEADY ACCUMULATE: H2 2018-2019 à3.50+

US 10 year         Sell 2.80 OB

BITCOIN:             4200 RESISTANCE S1 3800 S2 3500  S3 3000  S4 2500 H2 2018 à 5000 OL BULLS EYE!

The Market Marker remains some cautious concern.

 

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

2015 CLOSE:          DJIA 17425 SPX  2044 & NASDAQ 5007

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1370
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

 

2. Water stocks are a bargain for 2019 after selloff, analyst says

 

AFUND Select Small Caps with potential 30%-50%+ ROI.

Favored Sectors:

Healthcare [lower price/better outcome] e.g.

Avivagen (TSXV:VIV), Can-Fite Biopharma (ADR-CANF), Cel-Sci (CVM), Nova Leap Health (TSXV: NLH)

Commodities (2 year investing horizon)

So many good choices.

We continue to recommend Maximum Allocation to precious and base metal investments for the  intermediate and long term, given that the precious metal sector and copper are obviously very undervalued!

Now with lesser headwinds from US interest rates rising as well as less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors”.

A $1350 ($1400) target test in 2019 seems reasonable. Still, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.

·         Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

·         For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Gold FV $1370 = Commodity FV: 1332 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1368 + Crisis FV: 1400.

Gold/Silver ratio à 74  Silver FV $18+.

INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers remain $20+.

However, shorter term, after the Chinese New Year, some hedging or profit taking/protection will not be unwarranted.

 

2.     . “The Fed can hike a couple more times” — once next week and one or two more in 2019. There could be a recession if the Fed hiked until the economy rolled over and died.” 

3.     Avery Shenfeld, chief economist, CIBC Capital Markets

4.     HW: Perhaps they will be more prudent and wise in 2019?

5.       “This latest increase is yet another reason why Americans need to make 2019 the year they focus on wiping out their credit card debt.”

Matt Schulz, chief industry analyst, CompareCards

HW: I agree.

“If China slows gradually because they’re cleaning up their debt then that’s a positive.”

Aaron Hurd, senior currency portfolio manager, State Street Global Investors

HW: If so, I agree fully.

 

5.  That massive one-day stock market rebound was a sucker’s rally

UK stocks to crash 25% if no Brexit deal agreed, says MSCI   

Pimco advises investors to keep ‘powder dry’ ahead of ‘synchronized’ global slowdown

 

6. READER: Do you have a video of Friday's webinar?

READER: re: We don’t see beyond 22K by January but certainly possible.

DJIA has already breached 22K - closed at 21792 on 24.12.2018.

The next resistance R1 21560  R2 21000

These levels will be tested in Dec 2018 or latest end Jan 2019.

7.Note: our 2018 Stock Market Forecast suggested a lower range of 21,800 (although it did go higher than our first projections).    

READER: What is your view of bank storage for precious metals, especially in Canada and the USA secondarily.

HW: If banks are not safe places, not sure what will REALLY protect. There are Swiss options “slightly” safer but if things get really bad won’t really help I think.

FYI:  GLDM if not overly concerned about the domicile of the physical gold- otherwise there are swiss based ones (higher fees).