Fed to take action before 2023

Marc Nemenoff PRICE Futures Group

Financials: As of this writing (7:00am) Sept. Bonds are 4 higher overnight at 159’29 and up 1’21 for the week.10 Year Notes are up 1 overnight and 16 higher for the week at 132’07. 5 year Notes are 1 higher at 123’11, down 1 for the week. The yield curve continues to flatten with the 2 Year Notes now yielding 0.27% up 6 basis points for the week, the 5 year yield is up 2 basis points at 0.91%, the 10 year was down 7 for the week at 1.49% and the 30 year Bond down 8 basis points for the week at 2.11%. Tapering the monthly purchase by the Fed of Notes, Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities now seems to be more than just conversation and I suspect the comments and minutes of the next FMOC will be a bit more hawkish for shorter term rates justifying the recent change in the yield curve. We will be watching upcoming inflation news for market direction. Once again I suspect the Fed to take action before 2023 and note that current inflation (or reflation) is more than “transitory”.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 15 cents lower at 520’4, down 39’4 for the week. Nov. Beans 21’0 lower at 1280, down 46’0 for the week. Recent change in the near term weather forecast shows more anticipated precipitation. RAIN MAKES GRAIN. For the moment S. American crops are out of the news despite their drought conditions. Subsoil moisture is still a problem in the upper Midwest particularly the Dakotas.

Cattle: Yesterday Aug. LC closed 30 lower at 122.87, down 205 for the week. Aug. FC closed down 265 at 155.70, up 200 points for the week. These markets have had increased volatility as the market responds to lower than expected future feed grain prices. Near term support for Aug. LC is 121.65 and resistance 124.90.

Silver: Sept. Silver is 3 cents higher at 26.18, down 71 cents for the week. A strong Dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates have had a negative effect on precious metals as a store of value. Support is currently 25.70 and resistance27.80.

S&P: Sept. S&P’s are currently 19.50 higher at 4251.00 on new highs. Support is 4185.00 and near term resistance 4256.00.

Author

Marc Nemenoff

PRICE Futures Group

Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry.

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