Fed leaves rates unchanged

Marc Nemenoff PRICE Futures Group

Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 15 lower at 152'22, 10 Yr. Notes 5.5 lower at 125'27 and 5 Yr. Notes 3.7 lower at 118'02.5. The Fed has left rates unchanged as expected after yesterday's FOMC meeting. Of note is the intention to start trimming the Fed Balance Sheet (inventory of mortgage backed securities, Bonds, Notes etc.) as early as September. During the last week the market gave the opportunity to go short Bonds above 154'18, but failed to hit my selling targets of 126'18 in the 10 Yr. and 118'10 in the 5 yr. If you went short Bonds either take profits or use a protective buy stop at 153'15.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 2'2 higher at 388'2, Nov. Beans 5'4 higher at 1005'6 and Dec. Wheat 4'2 higher at 507'0. We are now long Dec. Corn from the 382'0 level and recommend either taking profits or using a break even stop. We narrowly missed buying Beans at 985'0 with the recent low just a fraction below 986'0.

Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle continue to trade with high volatility with the market overall trending lower. Last Friday's Cattle on Feed Report was decidedly negative given the much larger than expected placement numbers. Long term support for Oct. LC is in the 109.00 area.

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly cattle-on-feed report, released at 3:00 p.m. ET Friday, and analysts' estimates as compiled by the Wall Street Journal.

Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 25 cents higher at 16.71. This market has benefited from the weakening dollar. I am regretfully on the sidelines. I will be a buyer below 16.28.

S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 4.50 higher at 2477.75. Treat as a trading affair between 2464.00 and 2484.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the Sept. Euro is 3 lower at 1.17330, the Yen 1 higher at 0.89990, the Pound 55 higher at 1.3172 and the Dollar Index 1.5 higher at 93.520. The Dollar Index could not hold the 94.00 support level mentioned last week and appears to be headed to the 200 week moving average of 92.300 where I will be a buyer.

Author

Marc Nemenoff

PRICE Futures Group

Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry.

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