Other than surveys, evidence of any damage from the tariffs on the US economy remains hard to find.
High frequency labour market data (notably jobless claims) indicates that while companies are slow to hire, no significant layoffs are taking place.
FOMC Chair Powell appears unconcerned during his presser last week, as he continued to describe the US economy as “solid”, while stressing that the bank needn’t be in a hurry to cut interest rates as it awaits further data on the fallout of the tariffs before deciding on its next policy move.
This week's spate of April economic data (inflation and retail sales) will be key.
Inflation is expected to rebound from its March trough, but tariffs will play a small part in this, since imports already on their way to the US in April were generally exempt from the tariffs. Likewise, April retail sales of imported goods were likely drawn from pre-tariff inventories.
The next inflation print will probably be more relevant, but the uncertainty highlighted by the Fed last week means that every data point will, nonetheless, be scrutinised to an unusually high extent.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD ticks north after discouraging US Retail Sales
EUR/USD remains range-bound around 1.1550 in the American session on Tuesday. The US Dollar retains its overall weakness following an upbeat German ZEW report on Economic Sentiment and an unexpected setback in US Retail Sales.
GBP/USD stays below 1.3600 despite sluggish USD demand
GBP/USD remains on the back foot below 1.3600 in American trading on Tuesday. Caution amid Middle East tensions undermines the mood, yet the US Dollar remains unattractive after worse-than-anticipated US Retail Sales.
Gold price flat lines below $3,400 as traders seem reluctant ahead of the critical FOMC meeting
Gold price extends its intraday directionless price move and remains below the $3,400 mark through the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve's rate cut path before placing fresh directional bets.
Bitcoin falls slightly as Trump calls security advisors to deal with Iran-Israel war
Bitcoin price declines slightly to around $106,000 on Tuesday following a mild recovery the previous day. Donald Trump leaves the G7 summit early to return to Washington and meet with his national security team.
Chinese data suggests economy on track to hit 2025 growth target
China's May data was mixed with strong retail sales, but soft readings on fixed-asset investment and property price. Overall, though, data suggests that China remains on track to achieve its growth target in the first half of 2025.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.