Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Stagflation concerns are mounting amid an ongoing rise in energy prices, and more signs that global supply shortages and increasingly in the UK also delivery disruptions, are acting as speed restrictions for major economies. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one from a data perspective as activity data, inflation and PMIs data will be the highlights for next week.

Monday – 18 October 2021

  • Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3’s GDP is expected to slowdown at 0.5% q/q from 1.3% q/q, and 5.2% y/y from 7.9% y/y.

  • Tuesday – 19 October 2021.

  • RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared to maintain highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. The RBA has maintained a cautiously optimistic take on the outlook, suggesting that the current set back is likely to be temporary.

  • Housing Starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts are expected to climb to a 1.630 mln pace in September from 1.615 mln in August and 1.554 mln in July, versus a 15-year high of 1.725 mln in March. Permits are expected to improve to 1.724 mln from 1.721 mln in August, versus a 15-year high of 1.883 mln in January.

Wednesday – 20 October 2021

  • PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected 500 billion yuan ($77.6 billion) through its medium-term lending facility, matching the 500 billion yuan maturing today. Hence it seems that it is keeping the cash engine running and the interest rate unchanged for the 18th month in a row. In this meeting they should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates.

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK inflation looks more long lasting, following a BoE survey indicating that inflation expectations at UK firms are rising. In September though Inflation is seen lower with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.9% y/y from 3.2% y/y.

  • Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – ECB officials are doing their best to keep inflation concerns and tapering fears at bay, by continuing to highlight the transitory factors that are driving headline inflation rates higher. Headline inflation rates in the Eurozone at the moment are at 3.4% y/y and it is anticipated to stay unchanged for September on the rise of monthly reading largely thanks to the impact of the rising energy price inflation  and service price inflation.

  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI rose to a 4.1% pace in August from the 3.7% growth rate in July. The average of the BoC’s three core CPI measures was 2.6% in July (y/y, nsa). The y/y print was the highest since March of 2003. Prices were higher in 7 of 8 components, with transportation contributing the most to gains.

Thursday – 21 October 2021

  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) –  US initial claims dropped -36k to 293k in the week ended October 9 after tumbling -35k to 329k in the first week of October. This is the first time below 300k since before the pandemic – since March 13, 2020 to be exact. That brought the 4-week moving average down to 334.25k from 344.75k. Initial claims not seasonally adjusted increased 16k to 277.6k after sliding -38.9k to 261.6k. The data underscore the improvement in the labor market.

  • RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 19:00).

  • Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate.

Friday – 22 October 2021

  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Retail Sales are expected to give a further glimpse into Covid-19 damage. Core Retail sales for September are expected to grow to 0.8% m/m and  2.5% y/y.

  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – October Eurozone Services and Composite PMIs are anticipated at 55.2 from 56.2 reflecting contraction in both services and manufacturing sectors, confirming that bottlenecks are curtailing growth.  At the same time, manufacturers in particular are facing supply chain constraints. Job creation continued, but at a more moderate pace. Prices continued to rise sharply and business confidence was eroded by the combination, especially against concerns over the impact of the delta variant on global demand.

  • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada July Retail Sales fell -0.6% overall, after rising 4.2% in June. Sales decreased in 5 of 11 sectors, with building materials down 7.3%, while car sales and gasoline sales were up 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. Covid related restrictions eased some in July, though weaker demand kept sales lower for the month.

  • Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The US Markit PMI service is seen at 55.0 in October from 54.9.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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