Events to look out for next week

Treasuries remain the story of the month as inflation risk is on every investor’s mind. Even though sentiment got a boost from the deal on the US debt ceiling and for now it seems the problems in China’s property sector and Beijing’s regulatory crackdown are being overlooked, the inflation concerns, the potential for QE tapering ahead, technicals, and the advent of supply of 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions next week all cheapened Treasuries in a bear steepener. Hence all these remain the major culprits ahead of the new week. Fundamentals however will continue to dominate volatility as a busy week will start with leading indicators such as Labor, Inflation, Retail Sales, and GDP from some of the largest economies in the world.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 11 October 2021

• Canada – Thanksgiving Day

Tuesday – 12 October 2021

• Employment change & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to remain constant at 8.2% (3 Mo/y) while the included figure is expected to fall slightly to 8.2% (3 Mo/y) in the three months to August. The August UK ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.6%.

• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German October ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 25.8 from 26.5.

Wednesday – 13 October 2021

• Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – September’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a pull back to 51.05 bln USD from the 58.34 bln in August.

• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for September is anticipated to slow down to 3.4% y/y from 4.1% y/y.

• Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production are expected to have fallen from last month, with both providing a growth at 0.4% m/m and 0.1% m/m respectively in August.

• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is anticipated to present September gains of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following August gains of 0.3% for the headline and 0.1% for the core. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 1.5% in September. As-expected September figures would result in a 5.2% headline y/y increase, following a 5.3% pace in August and a 13-year high of 5.4% in June and July. Core prices should show a 4.0% y/y rise, steady from August, versus a 29-year high of 4.5% in June.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Thursday – 14 October 2021

• Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a negative employment report, with a loss of a 90k jobs in September after the massive 146.3k jobs lost in August. The unemployment is anticipated to tick up to 4.9% from 4.5% in August.

• Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow by 0.3% m/m while the headline should rise to 0.9% from 0.8%.

• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – September’s PPI headline is expected at 0.3% with a 0.5% core price gain, following respective gains of 0.7% and 0.6% in August.  As-expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric holding at the 8.3% August reading to leave a sixth consecutive all-time high. The massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains are chasing outsized increases in the trade price measures, alongside ongoing supply constraints that have provided a powerful lift for the inflation indexes.

Friday – 15 October 2021

• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – September’s Retail sales are anticipated at a -0.3% headline drop with a 0.2% ex-auto increase, following respective August increases of 0.7% and 1.8%, with a hit from declining vehicle sales and a continued unwind of the lift from Q1 stimulus.

• Michigan Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Michigan sentiment could be confirmed at 74.0 after consumer sentiment rose to 72.8 in the final September print, up from the 71.0 preliminary from the University of Michigan survey, and recovering 2.5 points of the -10.9 point dive to 70.3 in August. The index is still down from the 88.3 cycle high from April, however. The headline was near an all-time peak of 101.0 in February 2020.