Events to Look Out For Next Week

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

This week the focus mainly falls on PMI releases in all major economies, while US Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) stands out as the event of the week.

Monday

Retail Sales (CHF, GMT 07:15) – Retail sales are an important determinant of consumer spending abilities. Higher retail sales suggest that demand is growing and can serve as an indicator for inflation. Consensus expectations suggest that retail sales should have increased 0.4% y/y in August, compared to -0.3% in July

Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Consensus forecasts suggest that UK manufacturing has increased to 53.8 in September, compared to 52.8 in August.

Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – US manufacturing is expected to slow down but still report positive views about the future. Expectations suggest that the Index should come out at 60.5 compared to 61.3 in August.

Tuesday

Interest rate decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Keeping an eye on bank funding problems and falling house prices, but also looking at positive inflation and wage growth data, RBA will be in the difficult position to choose whether or not it should increase interest rates. If inflationary pressures persist then RBA will be forced to raise interest rats at some point. Consensus forecasts suggests that the interest rate will be left unchanged.

Wednesday

Services and Composite PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Markit PMI are important in gauging production in various sectors across the economy. Consensus forecasts suggest that services PMI will remain unchanged from July’s numbers while the Composite Index should increase to 54.4 from 54.2 in August.

Services and Composite PMI (USD, GMT 12:15) – Markit PMIs for the US are expected to depict the strong macroeconomic performance of the country. Services PMI is expected to increase by 1 point, to 53.6, while Composite PMI is expected to stand at 54.1, compared to 53.4 in August.

Thursday

Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australia’s trade balance is expected to register a smaller surplus in August, also due to the increased trade tensions between the US and China.

Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Expectations suggest that the index will decline to 61.4 compared to 61.9 last month, although still remain above 50.

Friday

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out positive, standing at 0.3% m/m in August, in contrast to the zero growth observed in July.

Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 07:15) – Inflation in Switzerland is expected to have declined slightly in September, standing at 1.1%, compared to 1.2% in August. This development could support the SNB decision of not moving interest rates.

Nonfarm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the Week – NFP releases are one of the most important monthly indicators of economic developments as they provide insights on the US employment status. NFP is expected to have registered a decline to 188k in September, compared to 201k in August.

Trade and Labour Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada is expected to have registered a larger trade deficit in August, at CAD 1.4 bln, compared to CAD 0.11 bln in July. This can perhaps beattributed to improved macroeconomic developments as the unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 5.9% in September compared to 6% in August, while the net change in employment is expected to be positive.

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

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