EURUSD: 1.2327
EurUsd had a narrow range in a choppy session on Friday, leaving the momentum indicators mixed today and the outlook pretty much unchanged, requiring a cautious stance at the start of the week as we sit right on the top of the daily cloud. The March US Retail Sales will be the key driver today (exp -0.1%mm, Retail Control group +0.1%, Ex-Auto +0.2%).
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed.
Daily Indicators: NeutralWeekly Indicators: Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are flat/mixed today and a cautious stance is required.
On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.2345/50 and again at 1.2375 ahead of 1.2395/1.2400. Above 1.2400 we could then head towards 1.2420 and even1.2470, but the latter seem unlikely today unless the US CPI figure misses badly.
On the downside, support will arrive at 1.2300/05 and then at 1.2260/50, where the rising trend support should remain strong support. Having tried and failed to break below this trend support trend support last week in trading down to 1.2215, this area will also remain strong support. This looks likely to hold for a while although a break could then head towards Fibo/100 DMA support at 1.2170/75. Below there would target 1.2085 and possibly 1.2025 although this remains over the horizon for now.
As before, I remain fairly neutral while this choppy trade persists, but given the speculative long Euro positioning, I still mildly prefer the downside in the medium term and would look to sell rallies towards the top end of the current range. Right now it seems that we are likely to just chop around within the existing range- Something like 1.21/1.25 – but going nowhere fast. US Retail Sales in focus today.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2421 | 28 Mar high | 1.2299/1.2306 | 12 Apr low/Friday low (Daily Tenkan) |
| 1.2415 | (76.4% of 1.2475/1.2215) | 1.2250 | 9 Apr low/Rising trend support |
| 1.2395 | 10 Apr high | 1.2215 | 6 Apr low |
| 1.2375/79 | (61.8% of 1.2475/1.2215) /12 Apr high | 1.2200 | Minor |
| 1.2344 | Friday high | 1.2170 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2555) /100 DMA |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, New York State Empire Mfg Index, NAHB Housing Market Index
T: EU CPI, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: German Wholesale Price Index, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
T: EcoFin Meeting, EU Current Account, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey, US Jobless Claims
F: IMF Meeting, German PPI, EU Provisional Consumer Confidence – April.
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