EURUSD: 1.1922
The US$ briefly headed to a new trend high against the Euro following the uninspiring Sentix report on Monday, with the pair trading down to the rising trend support at 1.1897 before a mild bounce, to finish the day at 1.1925. Tuesday is light on data and it could be a fairly tight session ahead.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Bullish Divergence
Daily Indicators: Down
Weekly Indicators: Turning lower.
Preferred Strategy: A cautious outlook is called for again today, with the momentum indicators looking mixed. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at some bullish divergence although the longer term charts tell us that this dollar uptrend is not finished with yet. Overall, while keeping a core short Euro position it would be wise to lighten up a little down here as we could see a bounce and need to leave room to sell into it.
Having bounced off the rising trend support at 1.1897, this remains the initial support, a break of which would open the way to a minor level at 1.1850 and 1.1815 ahead of the stronger support at 1.1800/1.1788 (76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555).
On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.1950, ahead of the Monday high of 1.1977, and then 1.1995/1.2000 and the 200 DMA at 1.2010. The 2 May high was 1.2030, which seems unlikely to be revisited today, but if wrong, look for a squeeze back to 1.2065.
While keeping a core short position, selling into near-term rallies seems to be the plan.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1985. SL @ 1.2035, TP @ 1.1825
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2030 | 2 May high | 1.1910 | (76.4% of 1.1715/1.2555) |
| 1.2012 | 200 DMA | 1.1897 | Rising trend support /Session low |
| 1.2008 | 03 May high | 1.1850 | Minor |
| 1.1994 | 4 May high | 1.1816 | 22 Dec low |
| 1.1977 | Session high | 1.0800 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Current Account – Mar, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
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