Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro is holding within narrow range above 1.1900 handle in early Friday’s trading after falling to 1.1837 on Thursday on better than expected US inflation data.
Subsequent bounce formed Hammer candlestick and repeated close above daily Kijun-sen (1.1877) sidelined immediate downside risk.
However, negatively aligned daily tech suggests further weakness, with upticks seen as selling opportunities.
Immediate resistance lies at 1.1942 (10SMA), guarding daily Tenkan- sen (1.1964) which should ideally cap upticks before fresh attempts lower.
Firm break below 1.1837/26 pivots (Thursday’s low / Fibo 61.8% of 1.1662/1.2092 upleg) is needed to confirm bearish resumption and expose next target at 1.1763 (Fibo 76.4%) which lies ahead of more significant daily cloud top (1.1720).
Conversely, sustained break above Tenkan-sen barrier (1.1964) and Thursday’s high (1.1995), which also marks Fibo 61.8% retracement of 1.2092/1.1837 downleg would neutralize bearish threats and shift near-term focus higher.
From the fundamental side, release of Eurozone’s Trade balance (21.4B f/c for July vs 26.6B in June) for July is the highlight of the European session, while US Retail Sales data (0.1% f/c for
Aug vs 0.6% in July and Core Retail Sales expected to stay unchanged at 0.5%), due at the beginning of the US session would have stronger impact on the EURUSD pair.
Res: 1.1942; 1.1964; 1.1995; 1.2029
Sup: 1.1900; 1.1877; 1.1826; 1.1800
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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