EURUSD: 1.1238
€/Usd has chopped around either side of 1.1200 on Monday but the pair did rise sharply from the 1.1160 low to a high of 1.1260 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Euro was “too weak” as a result of the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy. The coming session will look to the PMIs and to speeches from various Fed board members, which will continue through the week ahead of the FOMC meeting, for direction.
Given the mixed look of the momentum indicators another choppy session would not surprise, and given the bullish divergence that appears to be building in the 4 hour charts I would be doubtful of heading too much higher today, with 1.1200/1.1300 looking likely to cover it. The dailies though do still point to an eventual move up, and above the initial resistance will at 1.1260 there is little to stop it heading back to 1.1300, beyond which, the points to watch are at 1.1365 (18 Aug high), 1.1427 (24 June high) and then at 1.1450 (major descending trend resistance).
On the downside, minor support will be seen at 1.1200/15 ahead of the session low of 1.1160. Below here seems doubtful today, but if wrong, look for a run back towards 1.1100. Buying dips remains the preferred medium term option.
| 24 Hour: Possible range trade – Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1350 | Minor | 1.1215 | Minor |
| 1.1326 | 8 Sept high | 1.1200 | Minor |
| 1.1300 | 9 Nov high | 1.1160 | (23.6% of 1.0838/1.1262)/Session low |
| 1.1280 | Minor | 1.1145 | Minor |
| 1.1262 | Session high | 1.1100 | (38.2% of 1.0838/1.1262) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German GDP (Q1), EU Flash Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs, German IFO Business Climate/Expectations , EU Financial Stability Report , US New Home Sales, Flash Mfg/Services/Composite PMIs, Richmond Fed Mfg Index , API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory , Fed’s Kashkari/Harker Speeches
Interested in EURUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
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