EURUSD: 1.1467
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral
EurUsd remained pretty much within its recent range on Friday, with most of the action to be seen through the crosses, and with the momentum indicators looking mixed a neutral stance is again required on Monday. The daily charts may still be trying to build a topping formation so, in the near-term I still prefer to sell rallies with a stop placed tight above 1.1500. Further out though, this possibly looks unconvincing as the ECB Meeting is due on Thursday, with expectations building that Mario Draghi may ramp up the rhetoric to begin tapering QE at the Sep 7 ECB Meeting, which would send the Euro sharply higher.
Technically, the initial support now lies nearby, at Friday’s low (1.1390) and the 13 July low of 1.1370, below which could then run towards 1.1345/50 and then to 1.1310/15.
On the topside, the initial resistance will be seen at Friday’s high of 1.1470 and at 1.1485/90 ahead of 1.1500. Above here, only minor hurdles exist to stop the Euro from heading to the May 2016 high of 1.1616.
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips. | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1616 | 2 May 16 high | 1.1425 | Minor |
| 1.1580 | Minor | 1.1390 | Friday low |
| 1.1535 | Minor | 1.1370 | 13 July low |
| 1.1488 | 12 July high | 1.1345 | (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1489) |
| 1.1471 | Friday high | 1.1310 | 5 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: EU CPI (June), BuBa Monthly Report, New York State Empire Mfg Index
T: German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US NAHB Housing Market Index, Import/Export Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: EU Construction Orders, Building Permits, Housing Starts EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
T: EU Current Account, ECB Meeting/Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference/Statement, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey
Interested in EURUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
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