EUR/USD: 1.0654
Euro reached the session high of 1.0713 in early European trade, since when it has remained under pressure, finishing the day just above the 1.0651 low, pulled down in part by the move lower in EurGbp when Cable headed higher on hope of a positive outcome on the UK Brexit vote. Also weighing on the Euro was the possibility of a good result for the far-right party in Wednesday’s Dutch election, although an outright win is not thought to be the likely outcome. With French/German elections coming up this year, a far-right show of strength would place further downside pressure on the Euro.
The short term momentum indicators are now looking as though the pressure today could remain on the downside although ahead of the FOMC outcome I doubt that we head too far in either direction and would be surprised to see the Euro head much below 1.0600, if indeed we get that far. If we do head lower then support will arrive at the minor Fibo levels of the rally from the 1.0494 trend low. If the Fed are overly hawkish in their growth outlook on Wednesday, we should see a return to dollar strength and, although some way off at present, a break of the recent 1.0525 pivot could retest the 1.0500/1.0490 area, beneath which there is not too much to hold the Euro up ahead of the 11 January low of 1.0453. Under there would suggest a run to much lower levels, with a return to the early January low of 1.0340 not being out of the question although that is currently a long way off. On the topside, back above 1.0700 would again see sellers at the session high of 1.0713, and then at 1.0750 although above that will find little resistance ahead of the early February high of 1.0829. Look for 1.0600/1.0700 to cover it today.
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.0800 | Minor | 1.0652 | Session low /Daily cloud top |
| 1.0770 | Minor | 1.0630 | (38.2% of 1.0494/1.0713) |
| 1.0750 | (76.4% of 1.0829/1.0494) | 1.0605 | (50% of 1.0494/1 0713) |
| 1.0713 | 8 Feb high/Session high | 1.0578 | (61.8% of 1.0494/1.0713) |
| 1.0680 | Minor | 1.0525 | 9 Mar low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German CPI, HICP (Feb), EU Industrial Production (Jan), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (Mar) US NFIB Business Optimism Index, PPI, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
Interested in EURUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
All content on this website, www.fxcharts.com.au (FX Charts PL) is a personal view only and offers absolutely no guarantee as to the correctness or otherwise of that opinion. The content here is of a “general nature” only and does not constitute personal or investment advice. The FX Charts website is not an inducement to trade Foreign Exchange (FX). No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from any , comment, opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, within the FX Charts Website. The information and any opinion or outlook expressed in this commentary may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may be liable change at any time, without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.