EUR/USD: 1.0589
The Euro has been volatile but has again held on above the recent 1.0525 pivot, spiking to as high as 1.0615 following the ECB decision, before settling at 1.0585.
The momentum indicators still look pretty neutral following the ECB decision and a cautious stance is again required ahead of today’s NFP release, although I prefer to trade from the short side, selling into strength. If we do head lower, below the session low of 1.0525 could retest the 1.0500/1.0490 area, beneath which there is not too much to hold the Euro up ahead of the 11 January low of 1.0453. Under there would suggest a run to much lower levels, with a return to the early January low of 1.0340 not being out of the question. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the session high of 1.0615 ahead of the 7 Mar high of 1.0639 beyond which, look for a move towards 1.0675/80. Beyond that would allow room for 1.0700+ although it would need a very poor NFP to get there and I don’t think it is likely.
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Resistance | ||
| 1.0713 | 8 Feb high | 1.0565 | 200 HMA |
| 1.0678 | 16 Feb high | 1.0525 | Session low |
| 1.0639/35/30 | 7 Mar high/(76.4% of 1.0678/1.0493)/Descending trend resistance | 1.0501/93 | 3 Mar Low/22 Feb low |
| 1.0615 | Session high | 1.0453 | 11 Jan low |
| 1.0600 | Minor | 1.0420 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Trade Balance, US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data, Monthly Budget Statement, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Interested in EURUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
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