EURUSD: 1.0588
Eurusd squeezed higher, to reach 1.0630 on Monday before reversing to sit just below 1.0600 by the end of the session, not too far removed from where it started the day.
Once again, this leaves the outlook pretty much unchanged, and with the short term momentum indicators being pretty neutral a nimble stance is required. The dailies are also turning towards neutral, further clouding the outlook and a nimble stance is required ahead of what looks likely to be a fairly rangebound session ahead of Trump’s speech, tomorrow. Near term support will arrive at the 1.0550 and then at 23 Feb, 1.0537 low. Below that could then see a move towards 1.0500 and the 1.0493 22 Feb low, beneath which there is not too much support ahead of the 11 January low of 1.0453. A return to the topside will once again find offers at 1.0630/35 above which would allow a run towards 1.0675/80. Above here looks unlikely today, but we could potentially see a move back to 1.0700 and above. Look for something like 1.0550/0650 to cover it today while waiting on trump tomorrow.
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.0700 | 22 Feb high | 1.0588 | 200 HMA |
| 1.0678 | 16 Feb high | 1.0551 | 24 Feb low |
| 1.0630/35 | Session high/(76.4% of 1.0678/1.0493) | 1.0537 | 23 Feb low |
| 1.0620 | Minor | 1.0493 | 22 Feb low |
| 1.0600 | Minor | 1.0453 | 11 Jan low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Retail Sales (Jan), US Provisional GDP (Q4), Wholesale Inventories, Provisional US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Goods Trade Balance, Case Shiller House Price Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory.
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