EURUSD may decline if Draghi adopts dovish tone in Florence

Russell Shor, CFTe, MFTA FXCM

The EURUSD’s EMAs are in bearish formation. The green 5-day EMA is below the orange 13-day EMA, and the orange 13-day EMA is below the black 34-day EMA. This is typical of a mark-down phase. The single currency registered as oversold on the RSI(9) on 9 May (vertical dashed green line) and the oscillator normalised after the disappointing US CPI print yesterday. However, today will be an important day for the EURUSD because ECB president Mario Draghi is due to speak at 1:15 pm GMT at the EU State of the Union conference in Florence. If he adopts a dovish tone today (a dovish tone is indeed a possibility given that EU CPI also missed forecast), and given the bearish EMA formation, we may see further weakness ahead in the currency pair, despite the US CPI miss yesterday.

Author

Russell Shor, CFTe, MFTA

FXCM

Russell Shor (MSTA, CFTe, MFTA) has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa and holds the coveted Certified Financial Technician and Master of Financial Technical Analysis qualifications from the Interna

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