EurUsd has been under pressure since the EU PMI release, breaking the rising trend support and falling to 1.2253 ahead of a mild bounce. The Euro is looking increasingly heavy and will immediately focus on the EU CPI, but may move sideways while waiting on Friday’s NFP reading
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower?
Daily Indicators: Neutral
Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy: It could be another choppy day ahead, with the daily charts giving no real hint in either direction although the 4 hour charts still look a bit heavy and if we go below the session low, then the way will open to the 21 March low at 1.2240 and then to the major rising trend support trend support at 1.2220. Below there, we could possibly head towards Fibo support at 1.2170 although that seems some way off right now and may be a target for the NFP on Friday.
On the topside, nearby resistance will be seen at 1.2300, at the session high of 1.2335 and at the 2 Apr high at 1.2345 ahead of 1.2370 and 1.2400. Beyond there could then return to 1.2420, but seems unlikely today.
Given the speculative long Euro positioning, I mildly prefer the downside and would look to sell rallies although ahead of Fridays US jobs data it may be that we chop around current levels.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2300. SL @ 1.2350, TP @ 1.2220
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2370 | Minor | 1.2281 | 2 Apr low / Minor Rising trend support | ||
| 1.2345 | 2 Apr high/200 HMA | 1.2253 | Session low | ||
| 1.2335 | Session high | 1.2240 | 21 Mar low | ||
| 1.2300 | Minor | 1.2220 | Major Rising trend support | ||
| 1.2285 | Minor | 1.2170 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2555) | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
EU Preliminary CPI – Mar, EU Unemployment, US Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs Services/Composite PMIs, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, ADP Jobs data – Mar, Factory Orders – Feb, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change Fed’s Mester Speech
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