Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
The Euro hit new seven-week low at 1.1685 in late Asian trading on Friday, pressured by fresh strength of the US dollar ahead of key event – US jobs report, due later today.
The EURUSD pair eventually broke and closed below strong support at 1.1720 (Fibo 38.2% retracement of 1.1118/1.2092 rally) which kept bears limited during the past week.
Strong bearish acceleration on Thursday commenced after falling 10SMA repeatedly capped recovery attempts and left long bearish daily candle which weighs on near-term action.
Close below 1.1720 pivot was bearish signal for attack at initial support at 1.1662 (17 Aug trough) and extension towards next targets at 1.1604 (daily cloud base) and 1.1594 (rising 100SMA).
Falling 10SMA / daily Tenkan-sen (currently at 1.1761/73) mark strong barriers which are expected to keep the upside protected, while close above would generate initial reversal signal.
Overall picture of US jobs sector in September will define near-term direction of the dollar and its major counterparts.
Forecast for NFP for only 90K new jobs created in September is seen affected by hurricanes that hit US states on the south, but wages are expected to rise, according to the forecast for September at 0.3% vs 0.1% in August.
Better than expected numbers on today’s release would additionally support the greenback and send the single currency further down.
Alternative scenario sees dollar under pressure on NFP report’s miss.
Res: 1.1720; 1.1762; 1.1773; 1.1832
Sup: 1.1685; 1.1662; 1.1604; 1.1594
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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