EURUSD: 1.2343
EurUsd had a choppy session on Thursday, largely pushed around by the crosses but a slightly firmer US$ at the end of the session has seen the Euro close back in the daily cloud, with the momentum indicators looking a little heavy. The German March PPI and EU April consumer confidence will be data risks today along with several CB speakers.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower.
Daily Indicators: Neutral
Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators looking a little heavy today although 1.2320/25 remains intact, but below which would head towards 1.2300/05 and then to 1.2275, where the rising trend support should remain strong support. A break of this would then allow a return to 1.2215, the low seen on Apr 6, which will also remain strong support. This looks likely to hold for a while, although a break of 1.2200 could then head towards Fibo/100 DMA support at 1.2170/75, below which would target 1.2085 and possibly 1.2025 although this remains over the horizon for now.
On the topside, the initial resistance will now be seen at 1.2350 and at 1.2375 ahead of 1.2400, above which we could then head back towards 1.2415/20 and even towards 1.2470/75. Beyond 1.2500 looks unlikely for now, but if wrong a test of 1.2555, the 16 Feb high could be the eventual result.
As before, I remain fairly neutral while this choppy trade persists, but given the speculative long Euro positioning, I still mildly prefer the downside in the medium term and would look to sell rallies towards the top end of the current range. Right now it seems that we are likely to just chop around within the existing range- Something like 1.21/1.25 – but going nowhere fast.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2421 | 28 Mar high | 1.2327/23 | Session low /16 Apr low |
| 1.2415/13 | (76.4% of 1.2475/1.2215)/16 Apr high | 1.2299/1.2306 | 12 Apr low/13 Apr low |
| 1.2399 | Session high | 1.2275 | Rising trend support |
| 1.2370 | Minor | 1.2250 | 9 Apr low |
| 1.2350 | Daily cloud top/Daily Tenkan | 1.2215 | 6 Apr low |
Economic data highlights will include:
IMF Meeting, German PPI, EU Provisional Consumer Confidence – April.
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