EURUSD – Euro Edges Higher Ahead of ECB Meeting

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1827, up 0.29% on the day. On the release front, German Final CPI climbed 0.5%, a 3-month high. This reading matched the forecast. Later in the day, the ECB winds up its policy meeting and will release a rate statement. In the U.S, consumer spending is expected to improve in May, with Retail Sales expected to rise to 0.4% and Core Retail Sales predicted to rise to 0.5%. Unemployment Claims is expected to tick up to 223 thousand. On Friday, the eurozone releases Final CPI and the US publishes manufacturing and consumer confidence reports.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter-point, to a range between 1.75 percent and 2.00 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded hawkish in his press conference, saying that the economy was performing well and that “overall outlook for growth remains favorable”. This message echoed the rate statement, in which policymakers said that “economic activity has been rising at a solid rate”, pointing to stronger consumer spending and business investment. What was may have been the most notable development was that the Fed rate projections were revised upwards, predicting two additional rate hikes in 2018, for a total of four hikes. Until now, the Fed had projected three rate hikes this year. This represents a nod to the strength of the U.S economy and could boost the dollar against its rivals.

Fresh from the Fed’s rate hike, the markets will shift their focus to Frankfurt, where the ECB is holding its policy meeting., the ECB will be looking for any clues with regard to the ECB’s asset-purchase program. Currently, the bank is purchasing EUR 30 billion/mth, and the scheme is scheduled to wind up in September. However, some ECB policymakers want to phase out the program slowly, rather than turn off the tap completely in September. What is clear is that the ECB board members will conduct a detailed discussion about the fate of the stimulus package at this meeting. If ECB President Mario Draghi discusses any new developments regarding stimulus at his press conference, we could see some volatility from EUR/USD on Thursday.

Back to the drawing board

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 1:30 German Final CPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%

• 2:45 French Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%

• 7:45 Eurozone Main Refinancing Rate. Estimate 0.00%

• 8:30 ECB Press Conference

• 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%

• 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 223K

• 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.5%

• 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%

• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 87B

• 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.3%

• 5:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 1.9%

• 5:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 1.1%

• 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 19.1

• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.5

Open: 1.1793 High: 1.1831 Low: 1.1789 Close: 1.1827

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD ticked higher in the Asian session and has posted small gains in European trade

• 1.1809 has switched to a support role after gains by USD/CAD. It is a weak line

• 1.1915 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1809, 1.1718, 1.1613 and 1.1448

• Above: 1.1915, 1.1996 and 1.2154

• Current range: 1.1809 to 1.1915