EURUSD – Bears show strong hesitation at 1.18 zone; bearish outlook below falling 10SMA

EURUSD

The Euro probed again below 1.18 handle in early European trading, but limited downside keeps the so far within 1.1792/1.1837 session range. Outlook remains negative, but bears may show further hesitation at 1.18 zone as yesterday's weakness failed to close below 1.1800/1.1790 pivots (psychological / Fibo 76.4% of 1.1553/1.2555 upleg) and daily indicators are entering oversold territory. Negative outlook is supported by dollar's rally, driven by higher US yields and political uncertainty in Italy and would remain intact while the pair holds below Wednesday's high at 1.1853 (also Fibo 38.2% of 1.1996/1.1763 downleg). Break here would generate initial bullish signal which requires confirmation on break and close above falling 10SMA (1.1884). Otherwise, extended consolidation under 10SMA would precede fresh weakness and possible attack at key supports at 1.1709 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0340/1.2555 ascend) and 1.1675 (top of thick weekly cloud). EU trade balance is the key event in European session while US jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and several speakers from Fed are the highlights of the US session.

Res: 1.1837; 1.1853; 1.1879; 1.1907
Sup: 1.1792; 1.1763; 1.1709; 1.1675

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