Eurozone: Inflation in sight?

Despite the cyclical recovery, core inflation has not shown any convincing signs of picking up yet.
Based on current estimates of structural unemployment and recent job market trends, however, inflation is bound to pick up fairly soon: the European economy should enter an inflationary phase between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.
Yet the jobless rate might be giving only a partial picture of labour underutilisation.
Using a broader measure – including involuntary part-time workers and "shadow unemployment" – excess capacity might be twice as high as the official unemployment rate.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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