Eurozone | Growth gained momentum in 1Q19, but trending to moderate amid increasing risks

Hard data up to March point to domestic demand as the main driver of growth supported by the resilience of consumers and improving labour market. The better performance of exports to other EU countries offset the decline of those to Asia, raising doubts about foreign support and the sustainability of industrial growth.

Key points

  • Soft data up to May show some stabilization but at lower levels than in 1Q19 and indicate that growth could lose some steam in 2Q19. Higher uncertainty is taking its toll also on services sentiment.
  • Our MICA-BBVA model now projects Eurozone GDP to slow slightly to around 0.3% QoQ in 2Q19. This combined with positive surprise in 1Q19 could lead to a slight upward bias to our forecast of growth at 1% in 2019, but we remain cautious due to gloomier leading indicators and trade threats.
  • Risks are tilted to the downside, mostly related to political events. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is increasing while US trade disputes are heightening, not only with China but also with the EU.

Download The Full Eurozone Article

En ningún caso BBVA será responsable de las pérdidas, daños o perjuicios de cualquier tipo que surjan por acceder y usar el website, incluyéndose, pero no limitándose, a los producidos en los sistemas informáticos o los provocados por la introducción de virus y/o ataques informáticos. BBVA tampoco será responsable de los daños que pudieran sufrir los usuarios por un uso inadecuado de este website y, en modo alguno, de las caídas, interrupciones, ausencia o defecto en las telecomunicaciones.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trims early gains, dangerously close to 1.1200

The positive tone of the pair fades in the American afternoon as demand for the dollar resumes, despite softer-than-expected US data. All eyes on the Fed this week.


GBP/USD falls to the lowest since January

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2550, the lowest since January. Sterling has been under pressure amid growing uncertainty about Brexit and USD strength.


USD/JPY remains directionless above mid-108s on Monday

The USD/JPY pair is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday as the slightly upbeat market sentiment doesn't allow the safe-haven JPY to gather strength.


Gold: Signs of bullish exhaustion ahead of the Fed

Gold's rally seems to have run its course with signs of bullish exhaustion emerging on technical charts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision.

Read more

Gold recovers early lost ground, back above $1240 level

Gold recovered a major part of its early slide and moved to the top end of its daily trading range, above the $1340 region post-US data.

Gold News