|

European FX Outlook: Boring day ahead with Swiss inflation headlining

What you need to know before markets open:

  • The US President Trump says he will not give up his push on tariffs implementation although he is facing serious international pressure.
  • Winners of the Italian parliamentary elections -Italy's League and 5-Star Movement vie for power after the inconclusive vote.
  • Watch policymakers from the US, the UK and Australia deliver public speeches on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s market moving events

  • Australian retail sales rose less than expected by 0.1% m/m in January.
  • The RBA decided to hold the cash rate steady at 1.5% in March monetary policy meeting with the RBA retaining the neutral bias as it sounds less upbeat on the economy.
  • The Swiss CPI is expected to rise 0.2% m/m while increasing 0.5% y/y in February.
  • The New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley is set to participate in a breakfast roundtable with USVI non-profit leaders and later discuss hurricanes' impact on the local economy with USVI Governor Kenneth Mapp and business community leaders, in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands on 12:30 GMT.
  • The US factory orders are anticipated to fall -1.3% m/m in January.
  • Ivey PMI for Canada is seen rising to 56.3 in February.
  • The Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane speaks at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce, in London at 18:15 GMT.
  • The RBA Governor Philip Lowe is giving a speech titled "The Changing Nature of Investment" at the Australian Finance Review Business Summit, in Sydney at 21:35 GMT.
  • The Fed Governor Lael Brainard is set to deliver a speech titled "Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook" at New York University's Money Marketeers event at 22:30 GMT. 

Major market movers

  • The CAD was the loser of the day on Monday with NAFTA trade agreement and the US President Trump pushing on imposing trade tariffs on imported iron and aluminum weighing on Loonie.
  • The currency market is set to follow the sentiment in lack of fundamental news with key policymakers delivering public speeches on Tuesday. 

Monday’s macro summary

  • Caixin services PMI for February decelerated to 54.2 in February reading.
  • The German services PMI dwelled at 55.3 in February, meeting the market estimate.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI tracking manufacturing and services together decelerated to 57.2 in February.
  • The UK services PMI rose to 54.5 in February, beating the market forecast.
  • The Eurozone retail sales fell -0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y in January.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly above expectations at 59.5 in February. 

Author

Mario Blascak, PhD

Mario Blascak, PhD

Independent Analyst

Dr. Mário Blaščák worked in professional finance and banking for 15 years before moving to journalism. While working for Austrian and German banks, he specialized in covering markets and macroeconomics.

More from Mario Blascak, PhD
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1800

EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel below 1.1800 as the market volatility remains low ahead of the New Year holiday. On Tuesday, investors will pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 as trading conditions remain thin

GBP/USD corrects lower after posting strong gains in the previous week and trades below 1.3500 on Monday. With the action in financial markets turning subdued following the Christmas holiday, however, the pair's losses remain limited.

Gold extends correction from record-high

Gold retreats toward $4,450 from the record-peak it set at $4,550 and loses more than 1% on the day. Growing optimism about a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement and profit-taking ahead of the New Year holiday seem to be causing XAU/USD to push lower.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP bulls regain strength

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record roughly 3% gains on Monday, regaining strength mid-holiday season. Despite thin liquidity in the holiday season, BTC and major altcoins are regaining strength as US President Donald Trump pushes peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The technical outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple gradually shifts bullish as selling pressure wanes.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.