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Euro falls amid Fed hawkishness

A modestly positive surprise in the third-quarter GDP growth report from the Eurozone confirmed the upward trend in activity that has been evident in the latest business sentiment surveys.

This upbeat news largely overshadowed what was a completely uneventful ECB meeting on Thursday, in which Lagarde very much stuck to the script, while effectively confirming that the rate-cutting cycle is over - not that markets needed to be told.

Recent Fed hawkishness has sent the euro towards the low end of the 1.14-1.19 range that it has held since June.

As the Eurozone economy remains resilient, and as the effects of the massive German fiscal stimulus plan begin to be felt, we think that the common currency is becoming a buy around these levels.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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