• Recession risk remains low despite a tougher external environment, which will remain a defining feature for the growth outlook in the coming years. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising wages should support domestic demand.

  • Many fragilities are lingering in the background and labour market resilience is an important precondition for the expansion to continue.

  • Underlying inflation pressures continue to build, supporting a gradual uptrend.

  • We expect no ECB policy rate changes until the end of 2021.

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