EUR/USD under downward pressure

The euro is facing sustained selling pressure, primarily driven by a robust US dollar. The greenback is being bolstered by rising Treasury yields and fading market expectations for an early start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

Further weighing on the single currency are disappointing macroeconomic releases from Germany, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over US–EU trade disputes, which have been reignited by new initiatives from the Trump administration.

Additionally, investors are beginning to price in fiscal risks within the eurozone, fuelled by budgetary disagreements involving Italy and France. Collectively, these factors create an unfavourable backdrop for the euro in the near term.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

Four-hour chart

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has been forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.1656 level. The pair is currently trading below this pivot, with initial bearish targets at 1.1606 and 1.1568. A retest of the range’s upper boundary towards 1.1733 remains a possibility. However, a decisive break below the current consolidation would open the potential for a deeper decline towards 1.1488, with a subsequent extension to 1.1400. This bearish technical picture is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line, while above zero, is pointing decisively downwards, indicating that bearish momentum is prevailing.

One-hour chart

The H1 chart shows the pair breaking downwards from a tight consolidation around 1.1655. This move signals the likely completion of a corrective phase and the start of a fresh leg lower. The initial downside target is at least 1.1584. This view is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and is holding near the 20 level, reflecting strong near-term bearish momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental and technical outlook for EUR/USD both point to further downside. While a technical correction is always possible, the path of least resistance appears lower, with key support levels at 1.1584 and 1.1488 in focus.