KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Currencies
EUR/USD
EUR/USD trading in a narrow range as declining US yields and global uncertainties are keeping the dollar balanced.
EUR/GBP
Sterling under heavy siege as PM May pulled the crucial Brexit vote to avoid a humiliating defeat in Parliament. She seeks more EU concessions to convince MP’s.
USD/JPY trades surprisingly flat in a tight 112-114 range given the volatility uptick in global markets.
EUR/CZK
Weaker than expected Q3 GDP growth (2.4% YoY) and political uncertainty kept the Czech koruna near 2018 lows in November, despite 4 consecutive interest rate hikes.
EUR/HUF
EUR/HUF found higher ground following Orban’s election victory and during the emerging market turmoil but entered relatively calmer water afterwards. Mood swings in the pair are losing momentum.
EM Index
The basket of EM currency’s recovery stalls after a swift uptick in August. Global uncertainty and volatility keeps most EM in the defensive position.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.