The pair has spent the past twelve weeks trading in a 400 pip range between 1.1610/1.2010. There have been drifts higher, there have been drifts lower. Currently we see the market has fallen over at 1.1830 in the past week and is drifting lower. Momentum indicators reflect a mild drift lower rather than anything more significant at this stage. I tis also interesting that the market is now retreating to test the support around 1.1695. Although this is no longer a key support, it has been a good gauge of a floor in recent weeks and a closing breakdown would re-open the key 1.1610 lows again. Each of the past four sessions has seen lower daily highs, so this trend will continue unless there is a break above 1.1760 today. However, the hourly chart shows initial resistance is around 1.1720 this morning. A gauge of improvement would also be seen if hourly RSI went above 60 and MACD lines moved above neutral. Until then, we favour using ticks higher to be a chance to sell for pressure towards 1.1610.
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