Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD
Price action on EUR/USD in the past few sessions suggests that the bulls are gaining in strength. An initial look at the resistance of $1.1350 was rebuffed earlier in the week and also once more yesterday. However, the bulls seem to be made of sterner stuff now and the market has pushed above this resistance this morning. A decisive closing break above $1.1350 today would suggest that this is a break to back. This time we see the momentum indicators really going with the move, as the RSI confirms the move (at a three week high), Stochastics pull decisively higher and most encouraging of all, the MACD lines are on the brink of a bull cross. All this points towards a test of the five week range high at $1.1420 in due course. Although we are more confident of this break, we are still mindful that the euro has struggled to sustain upside breaks through this range. We would still be looking to use weakness as a chance to buy though, with a mini-uptrend coming in as support around $1.1275 today. The hourly chart shows $1.1300 is a key pivot over the past week and is supportive, meaning that with the hourly RSI a little stretched this morning, we look for buy signals between $1.1300/$1.1350. A move under $1.1250 support confirms the bulls have faltered.
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