|

EUR/USD: Signs of fatigue for the Euro after the two-day rally

The single European currency is measuring its strength and trading much bellow the 1.10 levels in a calm tone after the amazing rally of the last 2 days in the wake of the Fed & ECB interest rates decisions but mainly due to  Fed's President Powell's statements  who raised the bets on the possibility that the Central Bank will cut interest rates much earlier.

The bullish momentum of the European currency was further supported as in the similar statements yesterday from the President of the ECB Christine Lagarde there was no mention of the thought of reducing the key interest rates ,  something that has now brought to the table that the two main Central banks have different rhetoric at the moment, something that clearly favored the European currency.

Ηowever, as the course of the European economy continues to be problematic and given that the prices of oil and natural gas will remain close to the current levels, the possibility that the contraction of inflationary pressures will have a greater speed is present, so the rhetoric of the European Central Bank could change at any time.

On today's agenda stand out figures for the manufacturing and service sectors in the European and US economy, which are being watched by investors, but without some significant surprise it will be difficult to see a dramatic change in the exchange rate picture, especially in view of the closing of the week.

The scenario that the signs of fatigue of the European currency remain on the table for today is quite possible, as after the two-day rally the pair is expected to digest these levels with possible correction behaviors.

Let's not forget that although the course of the key interest rates is the main catalyst that affects the exchange rate and at the moment the Fed's latest dovish tone working in favor of the euro,  the  problems of the European economy remain on the table and I believe that it is very difficult for today the European currency to continue the same bullish cycle of the last 2 days.

As the opportunity to buy the euro as was my main focus for the past few days is now far removed,  I will keep a wait-and-see stance and consider opening position in favor of the US currency after new highs well above of 1,10. 

Author

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Vasilis Tsaprounis

Independent Analyst

Vassilis Tsaprounis possesses over 25 years of professional experience in Capital Markets and especially in the foreign exchange market.

More from Vasilis Tsaprounis
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1650 on renewed USD uptick

EUR/USD is off the low but remains in the red below 1.1650 in European trading on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar amid a negative shift in risk sentiment. Surging energy prices due to the Middle East war keep the bearish pressure intact on the Euro. The US Jobless Claims data are next of note. 

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3350 amid UK stagflation risks

GBP/USD sticks to losses near 1.3350 in the European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling loses ground amid fears that the United Kingdom economy could face stagflation risks due to higher energy prices, while the US Dollar attracts fresh havem demand ahead of the US Jobless Claims data. 

Gold climbs near $5,200 as Iran war fuels safe-haven demand

Gold price extends its gains for the second successive session on Thursday as traders seek safety amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. US and Israeli strikes across Iranian territory and widespread Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks on regional targets and military sites, prolong the crisis and its impact.

Top Crypto Gainers: Decred, Zcash, and Dogecoin lead recovery as Bitcoin crosses $72,000

Bitcoin trades above $72,500 at press time on Thursday, holding its 6% gain from the previous day, contributing to a broader market recovery. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at over $2.43 trillion as the broader market sentiment improves significantly.

FX alert: When Energy still writes the macro script the Dollar holds the pen

The market is quietly sliding back into the trade nobody wanted to own, but everyone now has to respect again. The no quick off-ramp trade. Yesterday’s bounce in risk assets already looks less like a turning point and more like a classic relief rally in a market that briefly inhaled before realizing the room was still on fire.

Cardano Price Analysis: Approaches key trendline amid bearish sentiment

Cardano (ADA) price is approaching its descending trendline around $0.28 at the time of writing, set to shape the next directional move. The derivatives metrics paint a bearish picture, with ADA’s Open Interest continuing to fall and short bets rising among traders.