EUR/USD Price Forecast: Wait-and-see mode continues amid the absence of catalysts

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1602

• The US Dollar lacks a clear catalyst amid the government shutdown and the upcoming Fed meeting.
• The EU will publish the preliminary estimate of October Consumer Confidence.
• EUR/USD sidelined in the near-term; wider pictures favor a leg lower.

The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully around the 1.1600 level, confined to a tight range for a second consecutive day, amid the absence of a relevant catalyst. The United States (US) government shutdown continues, which means no relevant macroeconomic data is being released. At the same time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet next week, which means Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain silent, at least regarding monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the European macroeconomic calendar has had nothing to offer so far. Later in the day, the EU will release the preliminary estimate of the October Consumer Confidence. As for the US, the calendar includes minor figures, such as New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales for September, and the October Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows the risk skews to the downside, although the momentum is missing. The pair develops below its 20 and 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which lack directional strength, converging at around 1.1650. At the same time, technical indicators aim modestly lower within negative levels, failing to provide clear directional clues.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD seems poised to extend its slide. The pair is developing below all its moving averages, with a bearish 20 SMA providing dynamic resistance at around 1.1610. The 100 and 200 SMAs head marginally lower above it, in line with the dominant bearish trend. Finally, the Momentum indicator advances below the 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands directionless at around 43.

Support levels: 1.1590 1.1540 1.1510

Resistance levels: 1.1650 1.1690 1.1740