EUR/USD Price Forecast: Wait and see about to end

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1581

• Market participants await critical earnings reports and FOMC meeting minutes.
• Encouraging European data was not enough to boost the Euro.
• EUR/USD extends consolidative phase below 1.1600 with a mild bearish bias.

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading uneventfully a handful of pips below the 1.1600 mark on Wednesday, as financial markets remain in wait-and-see mode, ahead of fresh United States (US) macroeconomic clues.

Other than that, speculative interest is keeping an eye on Wall Street amid the earnings season. NVIDIA is due to report later in the day, grabbing all the attention amid recent concerns about overvalued tech shares. Wall Street edged sharply lower on Tuesday, weighing on Asian shares. Stocks' negative momentum faded in European trading hours, but caution persists.

On the data front, the Eurozone released the September Current Account, which posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €23.1 billion, widely surpassing the expected €14.5 billion. The EU also confirmed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% YoY in October, as previously reported.

The US macroeconomic calendar includes today the August Goods Trade Balance and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. The document is expected to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) following the October meeting, and provide clues on what officials think ahead of the December meeting. Also, a couple of Fed officials will participate in public events in which they could comment on monetary policy.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD trades at 1.1582, little changed on a daily basis. The 4-hour chart shows that it develops below a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1595, which started to ease below the 200-period SMA at 1.1600. The 100-period SMA, in the meantime, provides intraday support at 1.1570 while it heads lower, skewing the risk to the downside. At the same time, the Momentum aims lower below its midline, reinforcing a bearish tone. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands directionless at 44, in line with mounting selling pressure, yet not enough to confirm another leg lower.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD is stuck around a mildly bearish 20-day SMA, while 100-day SMA gains modest downward traction above the shorter one, limiting advances at around 1.1660. The 200-day SMA maintains its bullish slope and currently hovers around 1.1390, limiting downside in the broader context. As per technical indicators, the lack of directional strength just below their midlines reflects the ongoing lack of directional interest.

Near-term action would remain capped while below the 100-day SMA at 1.1657, which converges with the weekly peak. Support, on the other hand, comes at 1.1570, en route to the 1500 threshold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)