EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar corrects lower

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1529

• Retail Sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.1% in September, missing expectations.
• United States-based employers announced 153,074 jobs in October.
• EUR/USD corrective advance could continue towards 1.1600.

The EUR/USD pair managed to recover some ground, trading as high as 1.1530 during European hours, holding nearby early in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) appears to be correcting lower after posting steady gains over the last few days, following the hawkish interest rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In the meantime, the Euro (EUR) has a limited upward scope, as earlier in the day, Eurostat reported that Retail Sales in the EU fell by 0.1% MoM in September, worse than the 0.2% advance anticipated. The August figure was downwardly revised to -0.1%, while the September annualized figure printed at 1%, below the 1.6% posted in the previous month.

Across the pond, the United States' (US) October Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024, and higher than the 54,064 job cuts announced in September.

In addition to that, the macroeconomic calendar will feature speeches by multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Policymakers are unlikely to deliver shocking words, with a December interest rate cut in the US still in doubt.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

After finding buyers in the 1.1470 strong static support area, the EUR/USD pair is mildly positive in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is posting modest intraday gains, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator advancing through the 50 mid-line to 53.97, underscores improving buying interest. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has just turned positive, yet it turned flat within neutral levels, limiting the upward scope. At the same time, the pair recovered above a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) now at 1.1503, but remains below bearish 100 and 200 SMAs, also limiting the bullish potential.

The daily chart for EUR/USD shows that a bearish 20-day SMA extends its slide below the longer 100-day average, while still remaining above the 200-day one. The 20-day SMA stands at 1.1595, the 100-day SMA is directionless at 1.1665, and the 200-day SMA advances at 1.1335. This setup keeps the short-term bias tilted to the downside, even as the rising 200-day average underpins the broader backdrop; downside pressure is likely to persist while the pair remains capped beneath the 20- and 100-day SMAs. Finally, oscillators are mixed but not outright bearish: Momentum remains below its midline, signaling selling interest, but with waning downward velocity, while the RSI has recovered to 40, still below 50 yet edging higher.

(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)